Building Scenarios for the Future of Transport in Europe: The Mobility4EU Approach

This paper outlines the scenario-building approach of the Mobility4EU project that aims to create a vision and action plan for mobility and transport in 2030. Scenario building is the first step of the Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA), the methodology used to conduct a broad stakeholder consultation. To emphasize the participative nature of the scenario building, the scenarios were created using the intuitive logics technique and participatory workshops. Each scenario describes future trends and technological, organisational or policy-related solutions. Based on a survey of stakeholders, “policy & legislative framework” and “lifestyle and user behaviour” emerged as pivotal uncertainties to steer the scenario building. They provided the basis for the development of four scenarios: Data World, Digital Nomads, Slow is Beautiful, and Minimum Carbon. The paper describes the trends and solutions that comprise these scenarios.