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2019 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Building Scenarios for the Future of Transport in Europe: The Mobility4EU Approach

Authors : Imre Keseru, Thierry Coosemans, Cathy Macharis

Published in: Towards User-Centric Transport in Europe

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This paper outlines the scenario-building approach of the Mobility4EU project that aims to create a vision and action plan for mobility and transport in 2030. Scenario building is the first step of the Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA), the methodology used to conduct a broad stakeholder consultation. To emphasize the participative nature of the scenario building, the scenarios were created using the intuitive logics technique and participatory workshops. Each scenario describes future trends and technological, organisational or policy-related solutions. Based on a survey of stakeholders, “policy & legislative framework” and “lifestyle and user behaviour” emerged as pivotal uncertainties to steer the scenario building. They provided the basis for the development of four scenarios: Data World, Digital Nomads, Slow is Beautiful, and Minimum Carbon. The paper describes the trends and solutions that comprise these scenarios.

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Footnotes
1
This paper is partly based on Deliverable D3.1 of the Mobility4EU project (Keseru et al. 2016).
 
2
China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia and Turkey.
 
Literature
go back to reference Bröchler S, Simonis G, Sundermann K, Steinmüller K (eds) (1999) Szenarien in der Technikfolgenabschätzung. Handbuch Technikfolgenabschätzung, Edition. Sigma, Berlin Bröchler S, Simonis G, Sundermann K, Steinmüller K (eds) (1999) Szenarien in der Technikfolgenabschätzung. Handbuch Technikfolgenabschätzung, Edition. Sigma, Berlin
go back to reference Keseru I, Coosemans T, Gagatsi E, Macharis C (2018) User-centric vision for mobility in 2030: participatory evaluation of scenarios by the multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA). In: Procedia—Proceedings of 7th Transport Research Arena TRA 2018, 16–19 Apr 2018, Vienna, in print Keseru I, Coosemans T, Gagatsi E, Macharis C (2018) User-centric vision for mobility in 2030: participatory evaluation of scenarios by the multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA). In: Procedia—Proceedings of 7th Transport Research Arena TRA 2018, 16–19 Apr 2018, Vienna, in print
go back to reference Muller B, Meyer G (2018) Mobility4EU—action plan for the future of mobility in Europe. In: Procedia—Proceedings of 7th Transport Research Arena TRA 2018, 16–19 Apr 2018, Vienna, in print Muller B, Meyer G (2018) Mobility4EU—action plan for the future of mobility in Europe. In: Procedia—Proceedings of 7th Transport Research Arena TRA 2018, 16–19 Apr 2018, Vienna, in print
go back to reference Wack P (1985) Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Bus Rev (November) Wack P (1985) Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Bus Rev (November)
Metadata
Title
Building Scenarios for the Future of Transport in Europe: The Mobility4EU Approach
Authors
Imre Keseru
Thierry Coosemans
Cathy Macharis
Copyright Year
2019
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99756-8_2

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