1 Introduction
1.1 Demand potential reflecting customer accessibility
1.2 Supply potential and agglomeration externalities
1.3 Coevolution of business services and other sectors
2 Growth in local economies
2.1 Categories of business services, responding to demand potentials
2.2 Spatial organization and service supply potentials
2.3 Cumulative dynamics
3 Descriptive statistics
3.1 Service sector composition
2007 | 2016 | |
---|---|---|
(Pr) Primary | 80 120 (1.8) | 98 891 (2.1) |
(Pu) Public | 1426 412 (32.9) | 1626 124 (34.5) |
(Ma) Manufacturing | 840 921 (19.4) | 694 791 (14.8) |
(Ho) Househ. Services | 485 789 (11.2) | 540 640 (11.5) |
OBS | 1138 553 (26.2) | 1277 829 (27.1) |
KIBS | 286 530 (6.6) | 391 159 (8.3) |
VKIBS | 79 167 (1.8) | 80 334 (1.7) |
Metropolitan | Medium-sized | Small | All municip | |
---|---|---|---|---|
OBS | 30.9 | 25.6 | 22.1 | 27.1 |
KIBS | 13.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 8.3 |
VKIBS | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 |
3.2 Sector growth patterns
2007 | 2016 | Change | Change (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
(Pr) Primary | 80,120 (1.8) | 98,891 (2.1) | 18,771 | 23.43 |
(Pu) Public | 1,426,412 (32.9) | 1,626,124 (34.5) | 199,712 | 14 |
(Ma) Manuf | 840,921 (19.4) | 694,791 (14.8) | − 146,130 | − 17.38 |
(Ho) Househ | 485,789 (11.2) | 540,640 (11.5) | 54,851 | 11.29 |
OBS | 1,138,553 (26.2) | 1,277,829 (27.1) | 139,276 | 12.23 |
KIBS | 286,530 (6.6) | 391,159 (8.3) | 104,629 | 36.52 |
VKIBS | 79,167 (1.8) | 80,334 (1.7) | 1167 | 1.47 |
Metropolitan | Medium-sized | Small | All municip | |
---|---|---|---|---|
OBS | 15.60 | 11.37 | 5.64 | 12.23 |
KIBS | 39.41 | 33.69 | 24.22 | 36.52 |
VKIBS | 7.86 | − 9.78 | − 9.68 | 1.47 |
4 Business-service expansion in response to the demand potential
4.1 Business-service capacity change in response to the demand potential
\(\mathit{ln}\Delta OBS\) |
\(\mathit{ln}\Delta KIBS\) |
\(\mathit{ln}\Delta VKIBS\) | |
---|---|---|---|
\(\mathit{ln}{A}_{ss}\)(local demand) | 0.0735*** | 0.0913*** | 0.0259 |
(8.347) | (4.506) | (0.465) | |
\(\mathit{ln}{A}_{R(s)}\)(regional demand) | − 0.000203 | 0.00463 | 0.0471** |
(− 0.0659) | (0.652) | (2.414) | |
\(\mathit{ln}{A}_{E(s)}\)(extra-regional) | − 0.0265** | 0.0423 | − 0.0228 |
(− 2.121) | (1.471) | (− 0.288) | |
Constant | − 0.252* | − 1.157*** | − 0.455 |
(− 1.679) | (-3.352) | (− 0.480) | |
Observations | 290 | 290 | 290 |
R-squared | 0.199 | 0.098 | 0.025 |
4.2 Business-service development in a panel model
lnOBS | lnKIBS | lnVKIBS | |
---|---|---|---|
\(\mathit{ln}{A}_{ss}\)(local demand) | 0.894*** | 0.533*** | 0.516** |
(25.47) | (5.640) | (2.046) | |
\(\mathit{ln}{A}_{R(s)}\)(regional demand) | − 0.0818** | 0.0894 | 1.510*** |
(− 2.019) | (0.819) | (5.183) | |
\(\mathit{ln}{A}_{E(s)}\)(extra-regional) | − 0.344*** | 0.116 | − 2.106*** |
(− 8.784) | (1.102) | (− 7.473) | |
Constant | 5.139*** | − 1.303** | 11.49*** |
(23.70) | (-2.230) | (7.364) | |
Observations | 2900 | 2,900 | 2900 |
R-squared | 0.262 | 0.072 | 0.022 |
Number of municipality codes | 290 | 290 | 290 |
lnOBS | lnKIBS | lnVKIBS | |
---|---|---|---|
\(\mathit{ln}\;{A}_{ss}\)(local demand) | 0.713*** | 1.133*** | 1.035* |
(9.290) | (8.447) | (1.733) | |
\(\mathit{ln}\;{A}_{R(s)}\)(regional demand) | − 0.780*** | 0.433 | 2.266 |
(− 3.502) | (1.111) | (1.306) | |
\(\mathit{ln}\;{A}_{E(s)}\)(extra-regional) | 0.708** | − 0.973** | − 3.465 |
(2.539) | (− 1.995) | (− 1.596) | |
Constant | 2.839*** | 3.364** | 10.06 |
(3.114) | (2.110) | (1.417) | |
Observations | 520 | 520 | 520 |
R-squared | 0.460 | 0.431 | 0.027 |
Number of municipalities | 52 | 52 | 52 |
5 Sector change and business—service supply potentials
5.1 Business-service supply explaining sector growth in local economies
ln
\(\Delta\) Primary | ln
\(\Delta\) Public | ln
\(\Delta\) Man | ln
\(\Delta\) Househ | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ln \({T}_{ss}\), OBS | 0.0144 | 0.0255*** | 0.0382*** | 0.0473*** |
(1.027) | (5.416) | (3.446) | (7.217) | |
ln \({T}_{R(s)}\), OBS | − 0.00118 | 0.00675*** | 0.0117*** | 0.00925*** |
(− 0.232) | (3.951) | (2.913) | (3.895) | |
ln \({T}_{E(s)}\), OBS | − 0.0301 | 0.0180*** | − 0.00403 | − 0.00193 |
(− 1.504) | (2.684) | (− 0.255) | (− 0.206) | |
Constant | 0.456* | − 0.401*** | − 0.595*** | − 0.400*** |
(1.866) | (− 4.891) | (− 3.083) | (− 3.510) | |
Observations | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 |
R-squared | 0.012 | 0.237 | 0.089 | 0.239 |
ln
\(\Delta\) Primary | ln
\(\Delta\) Public | ln
\(\Delta\) Man | ln
\(\Delta\) House | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ln \({T}_{ss}\), KIBS | 0.0116 | 0.0184*** | 0.0263*** | 0.0319*** |
(1.144) | (5.461) | (3.291) | (6.729) | |
ln \({T}_{R(s)}\), KIBS | − 0.00519 | 0.00815*** | 0.0135*** | 0.0107*** |
(− 0.999) | (4.709) | (3.301) | (4.404) | |
ln \({T}_{E(s)}\), KIBS | − 0.0219 | 0.0181*** | 0.000428 | 0.00184 |
(− 1.257) | (3.123) | (0.0311) | (0.226) | |
Constant | 0.398** | − 0.278*** | − 0.489*** | − 0.246*** |
(2.117) | (− 4.435) | (− 3.302) | (− 2.795) | |
Observations | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 |
R-squared | 0.014 | 0.248 | 0.095 | 0.236 |
ln
\(\Delta\) Primary | ln
\(\Delta\) Public | ln
\(\Delta\) Man | ln
\(\Delta\) House | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ln \({T}_{ss}\), VKIBS | 0.00236 | 0.00953*** | 0.0184*** | 0.0167*** |
(0.379) | (4.558) | (3.751) | (5.614) | |
ln \({T}_{R(s)}\), VKIBS | − 0.00540 | 0.00948*** | 0.0141*** | 0.0128*** |
(− 1.102) | (5.753) | (3.667) | (5.471) | |
ln \({T}_{E(s)}\), VKIBS | − 0.0249 | 0.0244*** | 0.0121 | 0.0123 |
(− 1.410) | (4.112) | (0.868) | (1.454) | |
Constant | 0.451*** | − 0.234*** | − 0.490*** | − 0.209*** |
(2.711) | (− 4.193) | (− 3.750) | (− 2.630) | |
Observations | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 |
R-squared | 0.014 | 0.236 | 0.100 | 0.201 |
5.2 Sector development and business-service supply in a panel model 2007–2016
ln Pr | ln Pu | ln Ma | ln Ho | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ln \({T}_{ss}\), OBS | 0.0206 | 0.0705*** | 0.149*** | 0.0863*** |
(0.486) | (5.921) | (5.716) | (5.407) | |
ln \({T}_{R(s)}\), OBS | − 0.0552 | 0.144*** | 0.330*** | 0.0688** |
(− 0.760) | (7.037) | (7.405) | (2.514) | |
ln \({T}_{E(s)}\), OBS | 2.610*** | 0.588*** | − 1.401*** | 0.388*** |
(28.61) | (22.94) | (− 25.04) | (11.28) | |
Constant | − 26.53*** | − 1.268*** | 20.55*** | 0.513 |
(− 30.18) | (− 5.134) | (38.13) | (1.550) | |
Observations | 2900 | 2900 | 2900 | 2900 |
R-squared | 0.336 | 0.355 | 0.211 | 0.125 |
No municipalities | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 |
lnPrimary | lnPublic | lnMan | lnHouse | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ln \({T}_{ss}\), KIBS | 0.0339** | 0.0203*** | − 0.00865 | 0.0129** |
(1.996) | (4.071) | (-0.915) | (2.018) | |
ln \({T}_{R(s)}\), KIBS | 0.00165 | 0.0120 | 0.0169 | 0.0228** |
(0.0550) | (1.352) | (1.010) | (2.010) | |
ln \({T}_{E(s)}\), KIBS | 1.189*** | 0.295*** | − 0.704*** | 0.175*** |
(27.07) | (22.82) | (− 28.74) | (10.57) | |
Constant | − 7.899*** | 4.344*** | 14.94*** | 4.414*** |
(− 19.76) | (36.95) | (67.10) | (29.32) | |
Observations | 2900 | 2900 | 2900 | 2900 |
R-squared | 0.302 | 0.257 | 0.315 | 0.079 |
No municipalities | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 |
lnPrimary | lnPublic | lnMan | lnHouse | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ln \({T}_{ss}\), VKIBS | − 0.0180*** | − 0.000398 | 0.00312 | 0.00255 |
(− 2.874) | (− 0.213) | (0.844) | (1.189) | |
ln \({T}_{R(s)}\), VKIBS | − 0.0254* | 0.000504 | 0.0157** | − 0.00276 |
(− 1.883) | (0.125) | (1.981) | (− 0.599) | |
ln \({T}_{E(s)}\), VKIBS | − 1.164*** | 0.0595*** | 0.0940** | − 0.141*** |
(− 15.52) | (2.662) | (2.132) | (− 5.494) | |
Constant | 16.72*** | 7.221*** | 6.274*** | 7.927*** |
(23.11) | (33.49) | (14.75) | (32.10) | |
Observations | 2900 | 2900 | 2900 | 2900 |
R-squared | 0.088 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.012 |
No municipalities | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 |