Carbon emission reduction potential and driving factors of thermal power plants: Based on the combination of LMDI and DEA approach

Amidst China's third wave of electricity shortages, maintaining power generation to meet societal demands has resulted in substantial carbon dioxide emissions. Against this backdrop, exploring the carbon emission reduction potential (CERP) and its driving factors of thermal power plants has become particularly important. Thus, we constructed an RBM-MinDS model to measure the CERP of 248 thermal power plants in China from 2014 to 2021. Then, the LMDI model is introduced into RBM-MinDS model to reveal the actual influence of internal factors on the carbon emission reduction behavior of thermal power plant. The results indicate (1) The CERP of Chinese thermal power plants is showing an M-shaped downward trend. It has obvious technological heterogeneity and remarkable spatial non-equilibrium. (2) Improving carbon emission efficiency and power generation is critical to decreasing CERP. Potential energy intensity and carbon intensity are the key factors to restrain the increase of CERP. (3) For driving factors, carbon emission efficiency and emission reduction capacity have greater impacts than regional inequality and ownership inequality. (4) The carbon intensity effect and power generation effect have greater impacts on central thermal power plants than the local thermal power plants.