Challenges in Modelling Lithium Systems Using Independent Supply and Demand Models

This chapter delves into the intricate world of lithium supply and demand modelling, uncovering the key challenges and uncertainties that plague current approaches. It begins by exploring the role of different resource classification systems, such as JORC, NI 43-101, and UNFC, and their influence on lithium supply reporting. The chapter then discusses the limitations of bottom-up supply analysis, which relies on corporate data and industry reports, and the uncertainties surrounding lithium recycling. On the demand side, the chapter examines the impact of EV adoption, battery chemistry shifts, and fleet size on lithium demand. It also highlights the need for scenario-based modelling to capture the range of possible futures and the importance of incorporating economic factors to better represent lithium markets. The chapter concludes by emphasizing the unpredictable nature of both geological and societal factors and the need for more resilient models. By integrating these insights, the chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges and opportunities in lithium supply and demand modelling, offering valuable insights for professionals in the energy, automotive, and recycling industries.