Changes in the EU’s Geopolitical Position and Energy Doctrine in Light of the Ukraine Invasion

In Russia’s long-standing vision of organizing international relations, only the great powers enjoy full sovereignty. They are entitled to their security, which they ensure by maintaining a zone of influence around themselves, where they retain a degree of control over neighboring states. The great powers then respect each other’s spheres of influence. This is, of course, completely incompatible with Western notions of world order and international law. The reliance of the EU and, indirectly, the UK on Russian gas supplies has intensified over the last decade. Over that period, natural gas consumption in the EU and the UK has not increased, but production has fallen by a third. Imports have met the shortfall. In 2021, Russian gas accounted for 32% of European demand, up from 25% in 2009. Meanwhile, the construction of additional transit corridors, such as Nord Stream piping Russian gas to the EU and the UK, has reduced Ukraine’s importance as a transit country. As one of the authors of this article pointed out for the first time in 2017 (Polak, 2017), Russia can finance its current wars overseas mainly with profits from the extraction and sale of oil, coal, and natural gas.