17. Childcare Policy in the 2024 Election: Who Resonated with the Public Amid an Unprecedented Birthrate Decline?

This chapter clarifies how childcare policy was positioned in the 2024 general election. Japan’s demographic crisis—characterized by record-low birth and marriage rates, an aging population, and shrinking households—has made childcare policy a persistent and politically complex issue. While it gained political traction with the DPJ’s child allowance in 2009, substantial policy expansion began under the Abe administration, which tied childcare to economic revitalization. Subsequent LDP governments advanced free preschool and higher education, paternity leave reform, and in 2023 introduced the “Children’s Future Strategy” and a 3.6 trillion yen “Acceleration Plan” to reverse the birthrate decline. In 2024, most parties proposed expanding benefits and eliminating costs for childcare and education. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi stood out with distinctive proposals, such as scholarship amnesties, full income compensation during childcare leave, and tailored tax relief. Despite such efforts, many parties offered vague funding strategies. While DPP and Reiwa performed well in proportional representation, regression analysis reveals that candidates prioritizing childcare policy did not gain more votes in single-member districts. As child-rearing households shrink, childcare policy increasingly overlaps with gender, family, and labor market reform. Despite growing social investment, conservative institutions and corporate-based welfare continue to impede deeper change. After the election, the LDP adopted select proposals from DPP and Ishin, like expanding free education. However, without addressing structural issues like long working hours and entrenched gender norms, childcare policy may fail to inspire broader support—limiting its effectiveness and long-term political sustainability.