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Climate Adaptation Modelling

  • Open Access
  • 2022
  • Open Access
  • Book

About this book

This open access book focuses on an issue only marginally tackled by this literature: the still existing gap between adaptation science and modelling and the possibility to effectively access and exploit the information produced by policy making at different levels, international, national and local. To do so, the book presents the proceedings of a high-level expert workshop on adaptation modelling, integrated with main results from the “Study on Adaptation Modelling” (SAM-PS) commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and implemented by the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, in collaboration with the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Deltares, and Paul Watkiss Associates (PWA).

What is the latest development in adaptation modelling? Which tools and information are available for adaptation assessment? How much are they practically usable by the policy community? How their uptake by practitioners can be improved? What are the major research gaps in adaptation modelling that needs to be covered in the next future? How? This book addresses these questions presenting the results of a study on adaptation modelling commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) enriched by the outcomes of a high-level expert workshop on adaptation also part of the research. This book aspires to provide a useful support to academics, policy makers and practitioners in the field of adaptation to orient them in the expanding adaptation modelling assessment literature and suggest practical ways for its application.

This book, mainly addressed to academics, policy makers and practitioners in the field of adaptation, aims to providing orientation in the large and expanding methodological/quantitative literature, presenting novelties, guiding in the practical application of adaptation assessments and suggesting lines for future research. This open access book focuses on an issue only marginally tackled by this literature: the still existing gap between adaptation science and modelling and the possibility to effectively access and exploit the information produced by policy making at different levels, international, national and local. To do so, the book presents the proceedings of a high-level expert workshop on adaptation modelling, integrated with main results from the “Study on Adaptation Modelling” (SAM-PS) commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and implemented by the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, in collaboration with the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Deltares, and Paul Watkiss Associates (PWA).

Table of Contents

  1. Challenges for Adaptation Modelling

    1. Frontmatter

    2. Chapter 1. Modelling the Cost and Benefits of Adaptation. A Targeted Review on Integrated Assessment Models with a Special Focus on Adaptation Modelling

      • Open Access
      Reimund Schwarze, Quirin Oberpriller, Martin Peter, Jürg Füssler
      The chapter delves into the use of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for modelling the cost and benefits of adaptation to climate change. It begins by distinguishing between cross-sectoral optimization models (POMs) and economic assessment models (PEMs) according to their objectives. The evolution of IAMs is traced through 'generations' of models, each enhancing our understanding of climate change and economic policy. The chapter then focuses on the challenges of adaptation modelling, including the complexity of sector-specific measures, uncertain benefits, and varying adaptation capabilities across regions. It provides an overview of how adaptation is incorporated into IAMs, both explicitly and implicitly, and discusses the need for more detailed and harmonized approaches to better capture the variety of adaptation possibilities. The chapter concludes with recommendations for future research, emphasizing the importance of improving adaptation modelling to better fit the heterogeneity of measures.
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    3. Chapter 2. Cross-Sectoral Challenges for Adaptation Modelling

      • Open Access
      Asbjørn Aaheim, Anton Orlov, Jana Sillmann
      The chapter 'Cross-Sectoral Challenges for Adaptation Modelling' delves into the intricacies of economic modelling for climate adaptation, focusing on the GRACE model. This model, a global computable general equilibrium framework, enables the assessment of cross-sectoral and cross-regional interactions, revealing the importance of adaptation measures in mitigating climate change impacts. The chapter explores case studies in the forestry sector and heat stress adaptation, demonstrating the model's capability to integrate local insights with macroeconomic analyses. It also discusses the challenges and opportunities in bridging the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary studies and stakeholder involvement to enhance the accuracy and consistency of climate impact assessments. By highlighting the potential for proactive adaptation and the limitations of current modelling techniques, the chapter offers a nuanced perspective on the future of climate adaptation research.
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    4. Chapter 3. Climate Services Supporting Adaptation Modelling

      • Open Access
      Roger B. Street
      The chapter delves into the European Research and Innovation Roadmap for Climate Services, emphasizing the critical role of climate services in informing climate action. It discusses the Roadmap's definition of climate services, which includes data transformation, projections, forecasts, and other relevant information. The text also explores the three main research and innovation challenges identified by the Roadmap: enabling market growth, building the market framework, and enhancing the quality and relevance of climate services. It highlights the accomplishments and gaps in these areas, drawing from various stakeholder assessments and recommendations. The chapter concludes by stressing the need for a systematic assessment of remaining and emerging challenges to ensure that climate services effectively support climate actions as outlined in initiatives like the European Green Deal and EU Horizon Europe missions.
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    5. Chapter 4. Impact-Oriented Climate Information Selection

      • Open Access
      Bart van den Hurk
      The chapter delves into the intricate process of selecting impact-oriented climate information to support adaptation to future conditions. It underscores the need for credible, relevant, and legitimate information to describe current and future climate scenarios. The text introduces two types of climate storylines: scenario storylines, which aggregate global climate change projections into stakeholder-oriented national scenarios, and risk storylines, which map climate-related shocks in a globalized world. Notably, the Dutch Climate Change Scenarios are highlighted as a case study, showcasing how complex climate projections can be condensed into four discrete narratives. The chapter also discusses the challenges and recommendations for creating credible climate information, emphasizing the role of societal practitioners and the limitations of probabilistic risk approaches in highly complex contexts. Throughout, the chapter emphasizes the importance of storylines in making uncertainty more conceivable and manageable, offering a unique perspective on climate adaptation strategies.
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    6. Chapter 5. On the Evaluation of Climate Change Impact Models for Adaptation Decisions

      • Open Access
      Thorsten Wagener
      The chapter delves into the challenges of evaluating climate change impact models, which are crucial for informing adaptation strategies. It critiques traditional data-based validation methods, arguing that they may not adequately prepare models for future conditions. The author proposes global sensitivity analysis as a complementary approach to assess model robustness and stakeholder trust. Through case studies, the chapter demonstrates how this method can reveal the adequacy of model parameters in controlling outputs, thereby enhancing the understanding of causal links between interventions and outcomes.
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    7. Chapter 6. Stress-Testing Adaptation Options

      • Open Access
      Robert L. Wilby
      The chapter 'Stress-Testing Adaptation Options' delves into the challenges of evaluating adaptation measures under deep uncertainty about climate variability and change. It begins by acknowledging the interconnected nature of climate change with other megatrends such as resource depletion and biodiversity loss. The authors advocate for integrated planning that avoids 'climate exceptionalism' and views adaptation through a water lens. The core of the chapter presents a robustness and resilience framework for adaptation option appraisal, emphasizing the importance of clarity about intended outcomes and understanding key vulnerabilities. The framework comprises portfolios of management options, system models, performance metrics, and appraisal criteria. The authors discuss two methods for stress-testing adaptation options: physical experiments and systems modelling. Field experiments, like the Loughborough University TEmperature Network, provide evidence-based adaptations, while systems modelling offers comprehensive, integrated risk assessment. The chapter concludes with practical recommendations for long-term monitoring and evaluation of adaptation outcomes, highlighting the need for transparency and governance structures to review evolving science.
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    8. Chapter 7. Reducing and Managing Uncertainty of Adaptation Recommendations to Increase user's Uptake

      • Open Access
      Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Alfredo Rodríguez
      This chapter delves into the critical issue of uncertainty in adaptation recommendations for the agricultural sector, particularly in the context of climate change. It highlights the importance of effectively managing this uncertainty to increase the uptake of scientific recommendations by users. The authors present a multi-faceted approach that includes ensemble modeling, bias adjustment, and the use of response surfaces to understand and communicate uncertainty more effectively. A key innovation is the Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which provides a quantitative measure of confidence in adaptation recommendations. The chapter demonstrates the practical application of these methods through a case study on wheat adaptation in Spain, showcasing how uncertainty management can refine and enhance the reliability of adaptation strategies. By addressing the challenges posed by model errors, limited observation records, and the complex interplay of climate and agricultural systems, this chapter offers valuable insights for professionals seeking to improve the applicability of climate adaptation recommendations.
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  2. Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Modelling

    1. Frontmatter

    2. Chapter 8. Modelling Risk Reduction Measures to Minimise Future Impacts of Storms at Coastal Areas

      • Open Access
      Óscar Ferreira
      The chapter explores the critical issue of storm impacts on coastal areas, exacerbated by climate change and increasing human occupation. It delves into the use of process-based models like XBeach and LISFLOOD to accurately simulate hazards such as erosion and flooding. The text emphasizes the importance of testing and validating disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures using these models, considering future climate scenarios. It also discusses the classification of DRR measures into exposure-reducing, pathway-obstructing, and vulnerability-reducing types, each requiring different modeling approaches. The chapter proposes a comprehensive approach to assess the effectiveness of DRR measures, including the use of an effectiveness index. It concludes by stressing the need for a more integrated use of models, climate change predictions, and DRR measures to enhance coastal management and preparedness against climate change impacts.
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    3. Chapter 9. A Model-Based Response Surface Approach for Evaluating Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Urgency

      • Open Access
      Timothy R. Carter, Stefan Fronzek
      The chapter introduces a model-based response surface approach designed to evaluate climate change risks and adaptation urgency, aligning with the Finnish Climate Act's mandate for regular national adaptation plans. The method involves constructing impact response surfaces (IRS) to depict the sensitivity of key indicators to climate and socioeconomic drivers, estimating the likelihood of exceeding critical impact thresholds, and simulating the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation measures. This approach integrates stakeholder input to select relevant indicators and ensures long-term monitoring and evaluation of adaptation strategies. The chapter highlights the importance of engaging stakeholders in model co-development and emphasizes the need for improved representation of adaptation in impact models. The method is currently being tested in five sectors at a national scale in Finland, showcasing its practical application and potential for enhancing climate change risk assessments.
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    4. Chapter 10. Use of Vegetation for Landslide Risk Mitigation

      • Open Access
      Bjørn Kalsnes, Vittoria Capobianco
      The chapter delves into the critical issue of landslide risk management in the context of climate change, highlighting the increasing focus on Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) for mitigation. It discusses the challenges of verifying the effectiveness of NBS, particularly vegetation, in reducing landslide occurrence without causing environmental harm. The paper emphasizes the need for advanced modelling techniques to accurately predict slope stability, incorporating the complex interactions between vegetation and soil. It also explores the legislative challenges and the need for quantifiable documentation of vegetation's effects. The chapter proposes a methodological approach to include vegetation in slope stability modelling, addressing the time-dependent and species-specific parameters. It concludes with recommendations for further research and development in this crucial area of landslide risk mitigation.
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    5. Chapter 11. Modelling to Evaluate Climate Resilience of Crop Rotations Under Climate Change

      • Open Access
      Kurt Christian Kersebaum
      The chapter delves into the critical role of crop rotations in enhancing climate resilience in agriculture, a sector highly vulnerable to climate change. It highlights the significance of diversified crop sequences in optimizing resource use efficiency, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. The text also explores the complexities and uncertainties in current modelling approaches, emphasizing the need for more sophisticated models that can simulate long-term effects and interactions between multiple crops and management practices. The chapter concludes with recommendations for improving model capabilities to better assess and adapt to climate change, ensuring sustainable and resilient agricultural systems.
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    6. Chapter 12. Dynamic Flood Risk Modelling in Human–Flood Systems

      • Open Access
      Heidi Kreibich, Nivedita Sairam
      The chapter 'Dynamic Flood Risk Modelling in Human–Flood Systems' delves into the critical importance of understanding and managing flood risk in the context of climate change. It begins by highlighting the significant global impact of floods, with over 2 billion people affected between 1998-2017, and the expected increase in risk due to climate change and urbanization. The authors emphasize the dynamic nature of flood risk, encompassing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and the need for integrated systems approaches to manage these components effectively. The chapter then explores empirical data-driven knowledge, including trend analyses of flood damage data and the innovative paired event concept, which allows for detailed case study analyses of risk and its drivers. It also discusses state-of-the-art modelling approaches, such as stylized models, system-of-systems models, and agent-based models, each offering unique insights into human-flood interactions. The chapter concludes with recommendations for advancing large-scale flood risk assessments by incorporating more detailed and comprehensive data and process-based modelling systems. Throughout, the chapter emphasizes the importance of understanding and quantifying the temporal dynamics of flood risk to enhance climate change adaptation and flood risk management.
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    7. Chapter 13. Climate-Fit.City: Urban Climate Data and Services

      • Open Access
      Filip Lefebre, Koen De Ridder, Katerina Jupova, Judith Köberl, Dirk Lauwaet, Antonella Passani, Jan Remund, Patrick Willems, Katrien Witpas
      The chapter 'Climate-Fit.City: Urban Climate Data and Services' delves into the innovative Climate-Fit.City service, which aims to help cities adapt to climate change by translating scientific urban climate data into practical information. It begins by outlining the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change impacts and the need for cross-sectorial adaptation processes. The methodology behind Climate-Fit.City is detailed, showcasing how it integrates climate data to address specific local challenges. The chapter also presents various sector-specific services, such as active mobility, building energy, and emergency planning, which are co-designed with urban end users. Notably, the chapter highlights the socio-economic impacts of these services, demonstrating their potential to improve public services, reduce climate-related deaths, and support evidence-based urban policies. Throughout, the chapter emphasizes the integrated nature of Climate-Fit.City, which uses a common data set to streamline multiple services and engage various urban actors, overcoming traditional silos in climate adaptation.
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    8. Chapter 14. Weather and Climate Services to Support a Risk-Sharing Mechanism for Adaptation of the Agricultural Sector. A Theoretical Example for Drought-Prone Areas

      • Open Access
      María Máñez Costa, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky
      This chapter delves into the critical role of weather and climate services in facilitating risk-sharing mechanisms for the agricultural sector, particularly in adapting to climate change. It emphasizes the vulnerability of agriculture to climate-related risks and the necessity of risk-sharing to achieve Sustainable Development Goals, such as reducing hunger. The chapter introduces weather-based index insurance (WII) as a viable adaptation strategy, explaining how it redistributes risk between farmers and insurance companies. The model developed in this study simulates the dynamics of aggregate demand for WII under different forecast conditions, demonstrating that perfect forecasts can lead to steady growth in insured farmers, while imperfect forecasts may result in stable or decreasing numbers. The analysis also considers the economic impact of WII on farmers' income and the potential effects of climate change on future droughts. The chapter concludes with recommendations for implementing WII projects and the importance of considering climate change effects in future models.
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    9. Chapter 15. Recent Innovations in Flood Hazard Modelling Over Large Data Sparse Regions

      • Open Access
      Jeffrey Neal
      The chapter delves into the critical role of flood hazard modelling in flood risk management, emphasizing the need for accurate data in regions lacking sufficient information. It discusses the four key components of global flood models (GFM)—terrain elevation models, extreme flow estimation methods, river network definitions, and inundation simulation models—and highlights recent advancements in each. The text also addresses ongoing data needs, modelling uncertainties, and opportunities for improvement over the next decade. Notably, it reviews the impact of error removal processes in digital terrain modelling and the potential of high-resolution satellite data for more accurate flood simulations. The chapter concludes with an assessment of the current state of global flood modelling, emphasizing the challenges and variability in model accuracy.
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  3. Sectoral Models for Impact and Adaptation Assessment

    1. Frontmatter

    2. Chapter 16. A New Modelling Approach to Adaptation-Mitigation in the Land System

      • Open Access
      Juliette Maire, Peter Alexander, Peter Anthoni, Chris Huntingford, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sam Rabin, Mark Rounsevell, Almut Arneth
      This chapter delves into the intricate relationship between food production systems and climate change, highlighting the significant role of land use in both adaptation and mitigation. It introduces the Land System Modular Model (LandSyMM), a cutting-edge tool that couples dynamic global vegetation models, climate system emulators, and socio-economic land-use models to simulate the complex interplay between natural systems and human activities. By representing both bottom-up adaptation dynamics and top-down mitigation policies, LandSyMM offers a unique perspective on the potential trade-offs and synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The chapter also discusses the limitations of current models and the need for more detailed spatial resolution to capture location-specific responses to climate change. Furthermore, it explores the potential impacts of autonomous decisions by land managers and farmers, emphasizing the importance of understanding these dynamics to inform effective policy-making. The chapter concludes by highlighting the potential of LandSyMM to address the gap in understanding climate change adaptation-mitigation and to inform policymakers on the trade-offs between different policy options.
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    3. Chapter 17. Water Resource System Modelling for Climate Adaptation

      • Open Access
      Edoardo Borgomeo
      The chapter explores the critical role of water resource system modelling in climate adaptation, focusing on the use of simulation models to predict hydrologic, socioeconomic, and environmental consequences. It delves into decision analysis methods under uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and robustness in water management. The text also discusses the application of these models in real-world scenarios, such as in London's water security planning, and highlights the expanding boundaries of water resource system modelling through technological advancements and institutional innovations. The chapter concludes with recommendations for the wider adoption of these approaches in the face of intensifying climate change impacts.
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    4. Chapter 18. A Top-Down Meets Bottom-Up Approach for Climate Change Adaptation in Water Resource Systems

      • Open Access
      Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Patricia Marcos-Garcia, Corentin Girard, Carles Sanchis-Ibor, Francisco Martinez-Capel, Alberto García-Prats, Mar Ortega-Reig, Marta García-Mollá, Jean Daniel Rinaudo
      This chapter delves into the complex challenge of adapting water resource systems to climate change, highlighting the need for flexible and dynamic adaptation policies. It introduces a unique framework that merges top-down and bottom-up approaches, addressing the cascade of uncertainties in climate projections and incorporating local vulnerabilities and stakeholder perspectives. The framework is illustrated through case studies in the Orb and Jucar basins, demonstrating how to develop future demand scenarios and adaptation portfolios. The chapter also emphasizes the importance of equity in cost allocation and the use of hydroeconomic models for selecting cost-efficient adaptation strategies. By integrating these elements, the proposed approach offers a systematic method for supporting the selection of adaptation measures at the basin scale, ensuring economic efficiency, environmental sustainability, social acceptability, and robustness.
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    5. Chapter 19. Advances in Climate Adaptation Modeling of Infrastructure Networks

      • Open Access
      Raghav Pant
      The chapter discusses the increasing necessity of climate adaptation for infrastructure networks due to the escalating impacts of climate change. It introduces a hybrid top-down and bottom-up methodology for evaluating network vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation strategies. This approach integrates climate hazard information with spatial network data to assess direct and indirect vulnerabilities and quantify risks. Case studies from New Zealand, Great Britain, Tanzania, Vietnam, and Argentina illustrate the methodology's practical application, demonstrating the significance of network interdependencies and the economic benefits of climate resilience investments. The chapter also highlights the development of open-source tools for risk assessment and adaptation planning, emphasizing the need for improved data collection and sharing to enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of these models.
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    6. Chapter 20. Navigating Deep Uncertainty in Complex Human–Water Systems

      • Open Access
      C. D. Pérez-Blanco
      This chapter delves into the pressing issue of water scarcity and flood risk exacerbated by climate change, population growth, and wealth distribution shifts. It argues that standard decision-making under deep uncertainty is inadequate and advocates for robustness through avoidance of unfavorable contingencies and adaptive policies that can handle unpredictable events. The research surveys recent advances in (socio-)hydrology and (institutional) economics, highlighting the need for better integration to address deep uncertainty. It proposes a modular hierarchy for multi-system ensembles to sample uncertainty and a longitudinal accounting of public transaction costs to strengthen adaptive robustness. The chapter concludes with recommendations for future scientific work, emphasizing interdisciplinary research, longitudinal data analysis, and stakeholder integration to inform robust water policies.
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    7. Chapter 21. Cascading Transitional Climate Risks in the Private Sector—Risks and Opportunities

      • Open Access
      Hans Sanderson, Thomas Stridsland
      The chapter discusses the significance of transitional climate risks in the private sector, emphasizing the need for robust risk assessment and management. It explains the different types of transitional risks as outlined by the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and highlights the opportunities these risks present for companies. The methods for assessing GHG emissions, including Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, are explored in detail. The chapter also discusses the challenges and complexities of accurate GHG emission reporting and the importance of harmonized accounting methods. It concludes with recommendations for enhancing transparency and collaboration in the private sector to effectively manage transitional climate risks.
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    8. Chapter 22. Climate Change Adaptation in Insurance

      • Open Access
      Marie Scholer, Pamela Schuermans
      The chapter delves into the crucial role of insurance in climate change adaptation, highlighting the need for innovative solutions beyond traditional risk transfer. It presents three key examples where insurers can significantly contribute to adaptation: incentivizing risk reduction measures in property insurance, promoting proactive management of business interruption risks, and improving creditworthiness through adaptation measures. These practices not only help in transferring risk but also in directly reducing avoidable damages, making insurance a vital tool in building resilience against climate change. The chapter underscores the importance of integrating prevention measures into insurance products and emphasizes the need for advanced risk assessment models to support risk-based pricing. It concludes by stressing the necessity for collaboration among public and private stakeholders to ensure that risks remain insurable in the face of climate change.
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    9. Chapter 23. Climate Change Adaptation and Societal Transformation: What Are the Public Health Challenges?

      • Open Access
      Virginia Murray, Tim Chadborn
      The chapter delves into the intricate relationship between climate change, societal transformation, and public health, highlighting the European Commission's Horizon Europe Missions as a pivotal initiative. It underscores the necessity of integrating health into climate adaptation strategies, drawing parallels with the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on behavioral change. The text introduces systems thinking approaches and behavioral change models as crucial tools for designing effective interventions. It emphasizes the importance of research in delivering evidence-based policies and outlines key strategies for adaptation, such as enhancing early warning systems and promoting sustainable lifestyles. The chapter concludes by recommending a systematic approach to intervention design, monitoring, and evaluation to achieve societal transformation and mitigate climate change's health impacts.
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  4. Adaptation Modelling and Policy Action

    1. Frontmatter

    2. Chapter 24. The Roles of Climate Risk Dynamics and Adaptation Limits in Adaptation Assessment

      • Open Access
      Laurens M. Bouwer
      The chapter delves into the critical roles of climate risk dynamics and adaptation limits in the assessment of adaptation measures. It emphasizes the need to capture the dynamic nature of risk, which is influenced by changes in climate, exposure, and vulnerability. Additionally, the chapter highlights the importance of understanding the hard and soft limits of adaptation to inform decision-making for both adaptation and mitigation. By integrating future dynamics of exposure and vulnerability, the chapter offers a more reliable basis for evaluating adaptation measures and ensuring their effective implementation.
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    3. Chapter 25. Climate Impact Chains—A Conceptual Modelling Approach for Climate Risk Assessment in the Context of Adaptation Planning

      • Open Access
      Marc Zebisch, Stefano Terzi, Massimiliano Pittore, Kathrin Renner, Stefan Schneiderbauer
      The chapter introduces the 'Climate Impact Chains' framework, a conceptual modelling approach designed to assess climate risks in the context of adaptation planning. Developed by Eurac Research, this methodology has been applied in various national climate risk assessments worldwide. It involves a participatory process to identify and understand the root causes of climate risks, integrating local data and knowledge. The framework considers hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, and can be operationalized using models, indicators, and qualitative approaches. It supports early identification of adaptation demands and fosters targeted discussions on adaptation options. The chapter highlights the advantages of this approach, including its transparency, ability to compare different units, and potential for integrating a hybrid quantitative/qualitative methodology. It also discusses challenges and future research directions, emphasizing the need for value-based risk assessments and validation of hybrid methods.
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    4. Chapter 26. Operationalizing Climate Proofing in Decision/Policy Making

      • Open Access
      Carlo Giupponi
      The chapter discusses the integration of climate change modelling and expert knowledge into decision-making processes for climate proofing. It highlights the challenges posed by deep uncertainty and the need for robust solutions that perform well across a wide range of future scenarios. The proposed methodological framework involves six main steps, including stakeholder engagement, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria analysis combined with uncertainty analysis. The approach aims to enhance the resilience and adaptation of systems by identifying the most robust solutions, which are those that perform best under various plausible future conditions. Applications of this framework in various contexts, such as regional planning and private investments, demonstrate its practical value in supporting effective climate change adaptation strategies.
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    5. Chapter 27. Adaptation Modelling: A JPI Climate Perspective

      • Open Access
      Alexandre F. Fernandes, Frank McGovern
      The chapter delves into the Joint Programming Initiative 'Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe' (JPI Climate), an EU-led effort to connect research, funders, and performers across Europe. It outlines JPI Climate's vision to facilitate a low-emission, climate-resilient society and its mission to align strategies and resources at national and European levels. Key projects such as ERA4CS and AXIS are highlighted, focusing on enhancing climate services and promoting cross-boundary research. The chapter also discusses future developments, including the establishment of Knowledge Hubs on climate neutrality and sea-level rise, and the anticipated European Facility for Climate Change. These initiatives aim to fill critical knowledge gaps and support the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
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Title
Climate Adaptation Modelling
Editors
Claus Kondrup
Paola Mercogliano
Assist. Prof. Francesco Bosello
Jaroslav Mysiak
Enrico Scoccimarro
Angela Rizzo
Rhian Ebrey
Marleen de Ruiter
Ad Jeuken
Paul Watkiss
Copyright Year
2022
Electronic ISBN
978-3-030-86211-4
Print ISBN
978-3-030-86210-7
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4

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