Climatic Vulnerability and Migration: Evidence from Indian Sundarbans

Coastal regions are particularly susceptible to climate-induced hazards, such as rising sea levels, storm surges, and coastal erosion, which threaten both human settlements and economic stability The Sundarbans, home to the world’s largest contiguous mangrove forest along the Bay of Bengal, is among the most climate-vulnerable coastal regions. The increasing frequency of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is evident from the 121 cyclones recorded between 1980 and 2024 and the intensity or number or frequency of cyclone is highest near the Indian Sundarbans. Cyclones Aila (2009), Amphan (2020), and Yaas (2021) have caused mass displacement, with Cyclone Amphan alone impacting 60 million people and resulting in 80 fatalities in West Bengal. Agriculture and fisheries, the two principal livelihoods of the Sundarbans’ coastal dwellers, are now under severe threat from saltwater intrusion, soil degradation, and storm damage. Consequently, many residents are compelled to migrate to other states in search of alternative employment opportunities. A nuanced understanding of these migration patterns can inform the formulation of adaptive policy strategies that enhance community resilience while mitigating displacement risks. Addressing climate-induced migration from coastal Sundarbans (India) requires a multi-pronged approach that integrates sustainable livelihood support, improved disaster preparedness, and inclusive policy frameworks to ensure the well-being and stability of affected populations. So, the particular nexus between climatic vulnerability and migration was tried to understand by a case study through an empirical database. The primary data was collected from 750 households which are categorized as migrant and non-migrant households.

Climate-induced migration has become a significant global issue, particularly concerning labor migration, poverty, and water-related hazards. This study analyzes the growing body of literature on climate-induced migration, focusing on rural–urban migration, agricultural practices, and migration as an adaptation strategy. The primary objective is to identify key themes, patterns, and influential works within the field through bibliometric analysis using Scopus and Web of Science databases. The analysis spans publications from 2007 to 2023, revealing a shift from theoretical discussions to empirical studies and quantitative methods. The United States, China, the UK, and France have been the leading contributors to this research. Core themes include climate change, migration, and adaptive management, particularly in relation to cyclone-induced migration. The study also highlights localized research in regions like Khulna and Sub-Saharan Africa, emphasizing the vulnerability and socio-economic impacts of climate change on migration patterns. Despite these insights, such localized findings have yet to be fully integrated into broader global discussions. The Sundarbans, a region facing shared cyclonic hazards across India and Bangladesh, serves as a focal point for the study, underscoring the need for collaborative solutions to address the climate-induced migration crisis. The findings suggest that while climate-induced migration has been studied across various contexts, there is still a critical need for localized insights to be incorporated into the larger global migration discourse. Further research is recommended to explore the mechanisms of adaptive management and to integrate regional studies into global migration frameworks for more effective solutions.

Climate-induced migration has emerged as a critical consequence of environmental changes, particularly in vulnerable coastal regions like the Indian Sundarbans. This study investigates the multifaceted dimensions of cyclone-induced migration risk by integrating socio-economic, infrastructural, agricultural, and climatic vulnerability factors. The research is centered on the Pathar Pratima CD Block of South 24 Parganas, West Bengal—a region frequently battered by severe cyclones such as Aila (2009), Amphan (2020), and Yaas (2021). Utilizing a composite index methodology based on the IPCC AR4 framework, the study incorporates 28 indicators categorized under exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, infrastructure availability, and agricultural vulnerability. Through spatial analysis in ArcGIS, migration risk zones were mapped, revealing that approximately 60% of villages fall under moderate to very high migration risk, especially those near the coastline. The findings demonstrate that cyclone frequency, saline water inundation, low adaptive capacity, and poor infrastructure collectively escalate migration risks. Case studies of three villages—Gobardhanpur (coastal), Kuemuri (riverine), and Purna Chandipur (inland)—corroborate the model’s validity, showing higher migration rates in coastal areas due to recurrent cyclonic shocks and agrarian distress. Significant positive correlations were found between migration risk and variables like livelihood crises and exposure, while adaptive capacity and infrastructure availability were negatively correlated. The study further underscores the notion of “trapped populations” who are unable to migrate despite high vulnerability, due to socio-economic constraints. This research offers a robust methodological framework to assess and spatially map cyclone-induced migration risk. It provides actionable insights for policymakers, planners, and NGOs aiming to develop resilience strategies for climate-vulnerable populations. Ultimately, it emphasizes the urgent need to address the intertwined vulnerabilities to mitigate forced displacement and enhance adaptive capacity in the face of escalating climate threats.

The practice of migration from Sundarbans (India) has become a normal phenomenon, mainly after cyclone Aila (2009), and it also again rises due to the cyclonic damage of cyclone Amphan (2020). Amphan made the situation most vulnerable and compelled the coastal people to migrate, though it was on a temporary basis as migrant workers. This migration could be called climatic migration. The chapter’s main objective is to understand the migration pattern and the socio-economic condition of both migrant and non-migrant households. The study was executed through empirical data collected from 750 households by random sampling and categorized as migrant households, meaning a minimum of one person migrated from their family, and no one migrated from a family treated as a non-migrant household. The finding revealed that the majority of the migrants are young and belong to lower backward communities socially and also economically, like the SC and Muslim communities, having low landholding capacity, interpreting the low resilient people have more chances to migrate to another place as migrants work. Most people migrate from the Sundarbans to the southern states of India, like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka, where job opportunities and labor wages are also high compared to their native place. The majority of the migrant laborers work in the construction sector, and they also come back to their homes twice a year. The study also found that their income is raised after migration. They initially construct concrete houses through their remittance, become more resilient, and enhance their quality of life compared to non-migrant households. This migration, as revealed by the study, is not just a response to the adverse effects of the cyclones, but also an adaptation strategy for the coastal dwellers to cope with the changing climate.

Cyclonic hazards significantly impact migration outcomes, influenced by environmental, political, demographic, economic, and social factors. These factors are interconnected with policies that encourage or impede migration. Cyclonic hazards can exert gradual pressure through prolonged inundation or sudden impacts like tropical cyclones. Individuals may migrate in response to immediate threats or anticipate future risks. These factors and their intertwined nature influence the complexity of migration. The study’s primary goal is to understand the migration pattern and the socio-economic and livelihood scenarios of migrant and non-migrant families. The whole research was executed based on an empirical data set collected through an intensive field survey through a semi-structured questionnaire. The question was formatted with the help of a pilot survey on those particular areas and taken with the help of existing literature on this field. Initially, we selected ten villages based on their cyclonic risk intensity. Four villages were chosen from high-risk to cyclone, three were selected from moderate-risk areas, and the last three were comparatively less prone to cyclones. Among the total households from the villages, we took 750 households as sample households. Out of the total sample, nearly 65% were categorized as migrated households from where a minimum of one member was migrated, and the remaining 34% were classified as non-migrant families where no one migrated. The data revealed that households near the coast are more prone to cyclones, which have significant damage and are more compelled to migrate. Landholding capacity is the most critical factor in deciding on migration. Landless households or low-holding families were more prone to migrate than those having high landholding capacity. The people who have attended the school up to the lower class or illiterate are more prone to migrate. The people living in Kucha houses are more prone to cyclone damage. Moreover, most of the families from coastal Sundarbans migrated with a dream of making a concrete house. Here, it also established that migration could be an adaptation from the adverse effect of cyclones for coastal dwellers. Most of the people who migrated had better economic conditions after migration, and it was also seen in some cases that migrant households were more economically powerful than non-migrant families. However, it also challenges the govt. Most people work in the destination as an informal job with low social and service security due to unskilled labor. So, governments must take the necessary steps to skill the youth age population for that security concern with “Migrant as an adaptation.”

Between 1990 and 2023, research on climate migration grew significantly, especially after the IPCC Fourth (2007) and Fifth (2014) Assessment Reports. Keyword analysis highlights major themes like migration, climate change, and adaptive management. Future research must adopt interdisciplinary, holistic approaches to address the complex economic, health, and environmental impacts of climate displacement. Findings show that migration is often a response to short-term threats rather than long-term adaptation. Cyclones have severely impacted fishing, aquaculture, shrimp farming, and agriculture, mainly due to prolonged waterlogging and increased soil salinity, leading to crop failures and income loss. Many affected households resorted to borrowing, though migrant households repaid debts faster than non-migrants. Migration rates were higher in coastal villages, among Scheduled Castes (SC), larger families, and households with multiple earners. However, severe housing damage often trapped the poorest in hazardous areas, limiting their ability to relocate. Migration should be recognized as a planned climate adaptation strategy, ensuring it remains safe, voluntary, and dignified. Policies must promote livelihood diversification, strengthen receiving areas, protect cultural identity through community relocation, and address the needs of trapped populations with in situ adaptation, building resilience among vulnerable coastal communities facing cyclonic hazards.