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2020 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Commentary

Trilateral Negotiations Over a Dam on the Blue Nile: US Meddling and the ‘Role’ of the UN Security Council

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Abstract

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), under construction on the Blue Nile within Ethiopia, is 73% complete, and began reservoir filling in July 2020. A few months following the filling, Ethiopia aims to undertake power generation testing using two turbines (out of a planned total of 13 when it reaches full capacity). Upon completion, Ethiopia aspires to generate 5150 MW of electricity, making the GERD the largest hydroelectric power plant on the African continent. The cost of the project is fully funded by Ethiopia without any foreign aid or loans. When in operation, the GERD is projected to provide 65 million Ethiopians with access to electricity and support Ethiopia’s development endeavours directly as a source of revenue through energy exports to neighbouring countries, and indirectly as a critical input for industrialisation. However, the two riparian countries downstream, Egypt and Sudan, have expressed various degrees of concern, and in some cases open hostility, towards the project.

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Appendix
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Footnotes
1
Zeray Yihdego, ‘International Law Connotations of US-‘mediated’ Blue Nile Dam Negotiations and Outcomes: Background’, Global Water Forum, 16 April, https://​globalwaterforum​.​org/​2020/​04/​16/​international-law-connotations-of-us-mediated-blue-nile-dam-negotiations-and-outcomes-background/​2020 (accessed 05 May, 2020a). For the following three parts of the series by the same author see https://​globalwaterforum​.​org/​2020/​04/​22/​international-law-connotations-of-us-mediated-nile-dam-negotiations-and-outcomes-equitable-or-arbitrary-and-coercive-reservoir-filling-part-ii/​ (accessed 11 May, 2020).
 
2
See, e.g. Mawahib Abdallatif, ‘Sudan rejects Ethiopia proposal to sign a partial agreement for the first filling of the Renaissance Dam’ (East African, 13 May 2020).
 
3
Ibid. This is not withstanding that Sudan is a key party in the case with its own hopes and fears in relation to the GERD, as will be considered later.
 
4
See, e.g. Aron Maasho, ‘Ethiopia leader rejects call for World Bank arbitration in dam dispute’ (Reuters, 21 January 2018).
 
5
The draft agreement is not publicly available but was reported that it was sent to the three countries see Ahmed Younes and Khalid Balola Ezrik, ‘US Submitted Final Draft of GERD Agreement’ (Al-Awsat, 25 February 2020). https://​english.​aawsat.​com/​/​home/​article/​2148611/​sudan-us-submitted-final-draft-gerd-agreement (accessed 20 May 2020).
 
6
‘What are Ethiopian reservations about US dam mediation?’, 3 Mar 2020 Https://​Www.​Trtworld.​Com/​Magazine/​What-Are-Ethiopian-Reservations-About-Us-Dam-Mediation-34270 (Accessed 11 May 2020).
 
7
Mahmoud Aziz, ‘Sudan refuses to endorse Arab League resolution supporting Egypt in Nile dam dispute’ (Ahramonline, 5 March 2020).
 
8
Note Verbal dated 1 May 2020 from the Permanent Mission of Egypt to the United Nations, UNSC Doc. S/2020/355, 1 May 2020.
 
9
For details of the impact of these phrases see Ethiopia Insight, ‘Why Ethiopia rejected the U.S.-drafted GERD deal’, April 2, 2020 at by https://​www.​ethiopia-insight.​com/​2020/​04/​02/​why-ethiopia-rejected-the-u-s-drafted-gerd-deal/​ (accessed 04 June 2020).
 
10
Ibid.
 
11
International Crisis Group, ‘Nile Dam Talks: Unlocking a Dangerous Stalemate’, 16 March 2020 https://​www.​crisisgroup.​org/​africa/​horn-africa/​ethiopia/​nile-dam-talks-unlocking-dangerous-stalemate (accessed 06 May 2020).
 
12
Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, New York, 21 May 1997.
 
13
Official Text: Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan – Declaration of Principles, March 25, 2015 https://​hornaffairs.​com/​2015/​03/​25/​egypt-ethiopia-sudan-agreement-on-declaration-of-principles-full-text/​.
 
14
UNWC, Art 7.
 
15
Tobias von Lossow, Luca Miehe and Stephan Roll, ‘Nile Conflict: Compensation Rather Than Mediation- How Europeans Can Lead an Alternative Way Forward’, SWP Comment, No 11 March 2020 https://​www.​swp-berlin.​org/​fileadmin/​contents/​products/​comments/​2020C11_​NileConflict.​pdf (accessed 28 April 2020).
 
16
Ethiopia Insight, ‘Why Ethiopia rejected the U.S.-drafted GERD deal’, 2 April, 2020. https://​www.​ethiopia-insight.​com/​2020/​04/​02/​why-ethiopia-rejected-the-u-s-drafted-gerd-deal/​ (accessed 6 May 2020).
 
17
See, e.g. Case Concerning Pulp Millson The River Uruguay (Argentina v. Uruguay) ICJ Judgment Of 20 April 2010, para 275. See also Lake Lanoux Arbitration (France V. Spain), Arbitral Tribunal November 16, 1957 http://​www.​lfip.​org/​laws666/​lakelanoux.​htm (accessed 07 May 2020).
 
18
‘Congressman Steven Horsford’s press release’, 4 March 2020 at https://​horsford.​house.​gov/​media/​press-releases/​congressman-steven-horsford-questions-secretary-mnuchin-slot-tax-grand (accessed 01 May 2020).
 
19
Zeray Yihdego, ‘Was USA’s involvement in Blue Nile Dam Negotiations a mediation or a coercion and intervention? Critical legal analysis and conclusions -Part IV’, Global Water Forum, 23 April 2020b https://​globalwaterforum​.​org/​2020/​04/​23/​was-usas-involvement-in-blue-nile-dam-negotiations-a-mediation-or-a-coercion-and-intervention-critical-legal-analysis-and-conclusions-part-iv/​ (accessed 06 May, 2020).
 
20
Cobb and Rifkin (1991), pp. 35–62.
 
21
UNSC Doc. S/2020/355. The letter is accompanied with an Aide Memoire of 11 pages long document that outline the failings of Ethiopia with its international law obligations.
 
22
SC Doc. S/2020/355, letter, para 3.
 
23
SC Doc. S/2020/355, Memoire, Executive Summary, Para 8.
 
24
SC Doc. S/2020/355, Aide Memoire, para 21.
 
25
Letter dated 14 May 2020 from the Permanent Representative of Ethiopia to the United Nations, Security Council Doc. S/2020/409, 14 May 2020. The Ethiopian response consists of four pages long letter from the Foreign Minister and an Aide Memoire of 16 pages.
 
26
Ibid, Aide Memoire, Summary, para 2.
 
27
Ibid, letter, page 2.
 
28
SC Doc S/2020/409, para 17.
 
29
Ibid., Aide-Mémoire, pages 10–13.
 
30
SC Doc S/2020/409, Aide Memoire, para 12.
 
31
Ibid.
 
32
Ibid, para 50.
 
33
Ibid, Aide Memoire, pages 12–13.
 
34
Letter from the Ministry of Affairs to the President of the Council, ‘Annex: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Sudan’s Position’, NO: SUN/201/20, June 2, 2020, page 4, para 7. The details have been presented as follows:
7. The positive impacts of the GERD results mainly because of flow regulation of the Blue Nile, i.e., the flow of the Blue Nile will be more steady with much less seasonality compared to the condition without the GERD. The positive impacts include:
  • Electricity Supply: An increase of the hydropower generation from the existing hydropower plants in Sudan (Roseires and Merowe), as well as expected future supplies from the GERD.
  • Irrigated Agriculture: The reliability of water supply to the existing and future irrigation schemes will improve, enhancing irrigated agriculture in the country.
  • Other Positive Impacts: these include longer lifespan of our dams (with the decrease of sediment bed load), reduction of damages caused by exceptionally high floods, saving in pumping cost, and increase of navigation depth along the Main Nile’.
 
35
Ibid, para 8.
 
36
Ibid.
 
37
Sudan Letter No: SUN/201/20, Annex, para 10–11.
 
38
Devlaeminck (2019), pp. 301–320. doi:10.2307/26800039.
 
39
Sudan Letter No: SUN/201/20, Annex, para 10.
 
40
Sudan Letter No: SUN/201/20, p. 3.
 
41
Ibid.
 
42
Sudan Letter No: SUN/201/20, Annex, para 39.
 
43
McClatchy, ‘Egypt’s potential presidential candidate threatens to use force against Ethiopia’s dam’ (Tribune Business News, Apr 7, 2014); see also J Starkey, ‘Ethiopia defies Egypt Bomb threat to back Nile dam’ (The Times, 15 June, 2013); for recent Egyptian intentions see H Hendawi, ‘Egypt’s El Sisi holds military meeting amid tension with Ethiopia’(The National, 3 March, 2020).
 
44
UN Charter, Art. 2 (4); Declaration on Principles of International Law Concerning Friendly Relations and Co-Operation Among States in Accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, General Assembly, 1883rd Plenary Meeting, 24 October 1970.
 
45
SC Doc S/2020/409, Aide Memoire, para 65.
 
46
SC Doc S/2020/409, Executive Summary, para 14.
 
47
Zeray Yihdego, ‘In Pursuit of Nile Justice’, Ethiopia Insight, 21 April 2020) https://​www.​ethiopia-insight.​com/​2020/​04/​21/​in-pursuit-of-nile-justice/​ (accessed 15 May 2020).
 
48
Ibid, para 22.
 
49
Statement attributable to the Spokesman for the Secretary-General on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, 19 May, 2020 https://​news.​un.​org/​en/​story/​2020/​05/​1064452 (accessed 20 May 2020). It has to be noted that the principles were taken from the 2015 DoP.
 
50
Sudan Letter No: SUN/201/20, Annex, para 39.
 
51
For Egypt see SC Doc. S/2020/355, Executive Summary, para 11.
 
52
SC Doc. S/2020/355, executive Summary, para 12.
 
53
Ethiopia’s communication refers to the equitable principle several times see SC Doc S/2020/409, letter, pages 2 and 4, executive Summary, 5,6, 11 and 12; and Aide Memoire, paras 11, 12, 14, 52, 58, 64 and 65.
 
Literature
go back to reference Case Concerning Pulp Millson The River Uruguay (Argentina Uruguay) ICJ Judgment of 20 April 2010 Lanoux Arbitration (France V. Spain), Arbitral Tribunal November 16, 1957 Case Concerning Pulp Millson The River Uruguay (Argentina Uruguay) ICJ Judgment of 20 April 2010 Lanoux Arbitration (France V. Spain), Arbitral Tribunal November 16, 1957
go back to reference Cobb S, Rifkin J (1991) Practice and paradox: deconstructing neutrality in mediation. Law Soc Inq 16(1):35–62CrossRef Cobb S, Rifkin J (1991) Practice and paradox: deconstructing neutrality in mediation. Law Soc Inq 16(1):35–62CrossRef
go back to reference Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, New York, 21 May 1997 Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, New York, 21 May 1997
go back to reference Declaration On Principles Of International Law Concerning Friendly Relations And Co-Operation Among States In Accordance With The Charter Of The United Nations, General Assembly, 1883rd Plenary Meeting, 24 October 1970 Declaration On Principles Of International Law Concerning Friendly Relations And Co-Operation Among States In Accordance With The Charter Of The United Nations, General Assembly, 1883rd Plenary Meeting, 24 October 1970
go back to reference Ethiopia Insight. Why Ethiopia rejected the U.S.-drafted GERD deal. April 2, 2020 at by Ethiopia Insight. Why Ethiopia rejected the U.S.-drafted GERD deal. April 2, 2020 at by
go back to reference Ethiopia Insight. Why Ethiopia rejected the U.S.-drafted GERD deal. 2 April 2020 Ethiopia Insight. Why Ethiopia rejected the U.S.-drafted GERD deal. 2 April 2020
go back to reference Hendawi H (2020) Egypt’s El Sisi holds military meeting amid tension with Ethiopia. The National, 3 March 2020 Hendawi H (2020) Egypt’s El Sisi holds military meeting amid tension with Ethiopia. The National, 3 March 2020
go back to reference Letter from the Ministry of Affairs to the President of the Council, ‘Annex: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Sudan’s Position’, NO: SUN/201/20, June 2, 2020, page 4 Letter from the Ministry of Affairs to the President of the Council, ‘Annex: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Sudan’s Position’, NO: SUN/201/20, June 2, 2020, page 4
go back to reference McClatchy (2014), Egypt’s potential presidential candidate threatens to use force against Ethiopia’s dam. Tribune Business News, Apr 7, 2014 McClatchy (2014), Egypt’s potential presidential candidate threatens to use force against Ethiopia’s dam. Tribune Business News, Apr 7, 2014
go back to reference Starkey J (2013) Ethiopia defies Egypt Bomb threat to back Nile dam. The Times, 15 June 2013 Starkey J (2013) Ethiopia defies Egypt Bomb threat to back Nile dam. The Times, 15 June 2013
go back to reference Younes A, Ezrik KB (2020) US Submitted Final Draft of GERD Agreement. Al-Awsat, 25 February 2020 Younes A, Ezrik KB (2020) US Submitted Final Draft of GERD Agreement. Al-Awsat, 25 February 2020
Metadata
Title
Commentary
Author
Zeray Yihdego
Copyright Year
2020
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55912-0_12