Asia to Dominate Automotive Business in 2026 as Well
- 20-01-2026
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The global market is booming, but German car manufacturers are shrinking. According to one expert's assessment, they will continue to lose market share in 2026.
China has been the leading market for electric mobility for years.
Rafmaster / Getty Images / iStock
According to one expert, German car production will continue to decline in the coming year. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, director of the private Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Bochum, expects manufacturers to shift part of their production to the US in response to Trump's tariffs. The number of employees in German car factories could fall from around 720,000 at present to well below 700,000. He expects the figure to be 650,000 by 2027.
In international comparison, the Germans and, with them, the whole of Europe are playing an increasingly smaller role. "Growth is taking place in Asia, and Asian car manufacturers (Japan, Korea, China) are increasingly dominating the automotive business", writes Dudenhöffer in his market forecast. They account for around 60 % of the global market in the current year, which CAR sees at 81.3 million sales, the highest level in eight years (2017: 84.4 million). With continued strong growth in China, the global market is expected to reach a record 85.4 million cars in 2027.
If You're Not in China, You're Not in the Car Business
China, the world's largest single market, further expanded its importance this year with 24.3 million passenger car sales. Around 30 million cars were built in the country in 2025, accounting for 36.6 % of global production. Europe accounts for just 15 %.
For 2026, Dudenhöffer expects growth of 2 % to just under 2.9 million sales in the saturated German market. This will be achieved primarily through planned new subsidies for the purchase of electric cars. The following year, the German market will slow down again. In terms of unit sales, however, it remains the global number 5 after China, the US, India, and Japan.
The future of German car manufacturers is closely linked to the Chinese market, according to the expert. Following the example of the VW Group, they will have to develop and build electric cars "in China for China". In this context, Dudenhöffer criticizes the softening of the combustion engine phase-out originally planned for 2035. He says it is not possible to disconnect from this development, but rather that it is necessary to face competition in the tough Chinese market. "If you're not in China, you're not in the car business".
This is a partly automated translation of this German article by dpa.
