Comparative life cycle assessment of current and future electricity generation systems in the Czech Republic and Poland

Energy technology is an important factor in global development. With the economic growth now occurring in many countries, the consumption of electricity is growing. Between 1974 and 2014, global gross electricity production increased from 6287 to 23,815 TWh; the average annual growth rate was 3.4%. In 2014, 66.7% of the world’s gross electricity production came from fossil fuels, including coal (40.8%), natural gas (21.6%), and oil (4.3%). Hydro power plants supplied 16.4%, nuclear power plants 10.6%, biofuels and waste 2.1%, and geothermal, solar, wind, and other sources accounted for the remaining 4.2% (World Energy Resources Report 2016; Electricity Information Overview 2017).

The World Energy Scenarios Report (2016) presents three exploratory world energy scenarios—Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock. These scenarios were quantified with a global multi-regional energy system model. Each scenario describes the development of a possible future energy system at the global and regional level. Modern Jazz is a competitive world shaped by market mechanisms and a highly complex and fast-paced economic and energy landscape that is constantly changing and evolving due to rapid technology innovation. Emerging technologies are exceptionally disruptive to energy systems and lead to substantial diversification of primary energy. Table 1 shows electricity generation based on Modern Jazz scenario. According to Modern Jazz scenario, a push for efficiency drives rapid electrification of energy systems. New power generation is dominated by natural gas, which accounts for 43% of generation growth to 2030. Wind and solar encompass 31% of new electricity production. Electricity generation has grown 2.0 times since 2014 and the electrification of final energy consumption has reached 28%. Wind and solar generation reflect 30% of total electricity production (World Energy Scenarios Report 2016).

In Unfinished Symphony, national governments unite and take effective policy action on climate change, supported by the values of civil society and an effective system of international governance. Economic growth is moderated, but also more environmentally and socially sustainable and more evenly distributed, with high levels of infrastructure investment.

Table 2 shows electricity generation based on Unfinished Symphony scenario. An emphasis on energy efficiency, moderated economic growth and higher electricity prices dampen electricity demand early in the period. The push for efficiency also accelerates the electrification of energy systems. The electrification of the final consumption of energy grows from 18% in 2014 to 20% in 2030. Natural gas accounts for 20% of growth in generation. By 2060, electricity generation has grown 1.9 times since 2014, and the electrification of final energy consumption has reached 29%. More than 39% of electricity generation comes from wind and solar power plants (World Energy Scenarios Report 2016).

Hard Rock explores a world where the geopolitical tensions in East Asia, Europe, the US and the Middle East weaken international governance systems. Governments establish policies that balance security, social welfare and environmental concerns based on the local context and without much consideration for global impacts. Table 3 shows electricity generation based on Hard Rock scenario. According to Hard Rock scenario, slower economic growth, coupled with restricted funding capacity for infrastructure build-out, reduce electricity demand early in the period. Electrification of final energy use rises from 18% in 2014 to 19% in 2030. Growth in natural gas and coal generation account for 36 and 4% of added generation in the period, respectively. Renewable energy sources reflect 26% of growth. By 2060, the electrification of final energy consumption has reached 25%, with 20% of electricity generation coming from wind and solar plants (World Energy Scenarios Report 2016).

According to European Commission “Energy Roadmap 2050” (2011a), the European Union is committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80–95% below 1990 levels by 2050 in the context of necessary reductions by developed countries. The European Commission analyzed the implications of this in its “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050” (European Commission 2011b). In the Energy Roadmap 2050, the Commission explores the challenges posed by delivering the decarbonization objective while at the same time ensuring security of energy supply and competitiveness. The Roadmap shows that the biggest share of energy supply technologies in 2050 comes from renewable energy sources. The second major prerequisite for a more sustainable and secure energy system is a higher share of renewable energy beyond 2020. Coal in the European Union (EU) adds to a diversified energy portfolio and contributes to security of supply. With the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and other emerging clean technologies, coal could continue to play an important role in a sustainable and secure supply in the future. Improving energy efficiency is a priority in all decarbonization scenarios. Nuclear energy is a decarbonization option providing today most of the low-carbon electricity consumed in the EU. It remains a key source of low carbon electricity generation. CCS, if commercialized, will contribute significantly in most scenarios with a particularly strong role of up to 32% in power generation in the case of constrained nuclear production and shares between 19 and 24% in other scenarios. The future of CCS crucially depends on public acceptance and adequate carbon prices.

CO₂ emissions from power generation significant decline between 2010 and 2050, while electricity demand still increases. In 2050, 18% of electricity is generated through power plants with CCS (solids and gas). CCS prevents CO₂ emissions, but is comparatively resource inefficient in relation to unabated fossil fuel combustion (European Commission 2011c).

The EU countries remain fully committed to the Paris Agreement and to climate action. The EU has deposited its instrument of ratification and will meet commitment to reduce its domestic emissions by at least 40% between 1990 and 2030 (European Commission 2011d).

In the European Union in 2015, the main sources of electricity included nuclear energy 867,402 GWhe (26.68%), solid fuels 846,834 GWhe (26.04%), and natural gas 566,075 GWhe (17.41%). All other sources of energy accounted for 29.87%. Figure 1 shows current and future electricity generation systems in the European Union. There has been a projected increase in gross electricity generation from 2000 to 2050 of 3,005,548 to 4,063,737 GWhe. With respect to nuclear energy, the highest consumption was recorded in 2005 (997,699 GWhe). By 2050, nuclear energy consumption is projected to be 736,532 GWhe. In the case of electricity from solids, a significant reduction in consumption is anticipated, up to 251,549 GWhe in 2050. Similarly, for oil, the largest consumption was 181,296 GWhe in 2000, while the lowest is expected in 2050 (4844 GWhe). With respect to electricity from natural gas, consumption is expected to continue to increase (Honus et al. 2016a, b). Also in the case of electricity from biomass, wind, and solar sources, a constant increase in the consumption of these energy sources is anticipated. In the European Union, the gross electricity generation from biomass in 2000 was 46,401 GWhe, and in 2050, generation is forecast to reach 391,380 GWhe. Gross electricity generation from wind in 2000 was 22,254 GWhe, while in 2050, it is projected to be 979,998 GWhe. From solar, in 2000, generation was 117 GWhe, while in 2050, it is expected to be 428,535 GWhe (EU Reference Scenario 2016).

In some European countries, vast coal and lignite resources are still being used to produce electricity. Because this practice generates high greenhouse gas emissions, it is desirable to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels in energy systems. According to the European Commission’s recommendations, this trend should change towards a steady reduction of hard coal use in the structure of electricity production. Information on the energy market in EU countries (including energy profiles that include facts on energy mix, energy security, competitiveness, sustainability, and EU state infrastructure) is included in the European Commission’s reports (European Commission 2017).

Economic and environmental aspects of the development of new energy technologies are both important. The environmental impact of individual energy systems varies depending on the sources used, including coal, nuclear power, renewable energy, and other sources. The reference literature shows the environmental impact of individual energy sources; however, there are no results of environmental analyses that take into account the LCA of the projected energy sources. One of the methods used to assess the environmental impact of energy systems is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). In the literature, there are only a few papers on the LCA for energy systems, including electricity and heat production in Poland (Kulczycka and Pietrzyk-Sokulska 2012; Bieda 2011; Lelek et al. 2016; Adamczyk and Dzikuć 2014; Lewandowska et al. 2015; Dzikuć and Adamczyk 2015). The literature also contains the results of the LCA analyses for innovative clean coal technologies (Burchart-Korol et al. 2016; Czaplicka-Kolarz et al. 2014). Previous papers on LCA for Poland focused on analysis of current energy systems. In the case of the Czech Republic, there is a lack of papers concerning LCA in the literature on energy systems, both current and projected. Only the results of LCA analyses for municipal waste management in the Czech Republic are present in the literature (Koci and Trecakova 2011).

The purpose of this paper was to assess the potential environmental impact of the life cycle of present and future energy systems in the Czech Republic and Poland, in connection with the implementation of the project: Programme Interreg V-A Czech Republic-Poland, Microprojects Fund 2014–2020 in the Euroregion Silesia.

Based on the LCA analysis using the ReCiPe Midpoint method for energy systems, environmental indicators were obtained in terms of impact categories (Pang et al. 2015). On the basis of standardization, the relative importance of the environmental impact categories derived was compared to the effects of this type occurring in other parts of Europe. It was found that the most important categories of impact include climate change, human toxicity, particulate matter formation, and fossil depletion. The climate change impact category refers to greenhouse gas emissions and expresses the radiative forcing of greenhouse gas emissions over a 100-year horizon, expressed in kilograms of CO₂ equivalent. The GHG emission factor is calculated based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP). The impact category of human toxicity includes exposure to toxic substances by inhalation of air and ingestion of food. The reference substance selected was 1,4-dichlorobenzene, expressed in kg 1,4-DB eq. The impact category particulate matter formation considers air pollution as a result of dust emissions < 10 μm in diameter (PM10), as well as the formation of aerosols of sulfur oxides, nitrogen, and ammonia. The presence of such particles in the air increases the probability of respiratory diseases. The impact category, fossil fuel consumption, includes consumption of methane, oil, and coal. The impact of fuel consumption is assessed on the basis of an increase in the cost of acquiring energy resources in the future as a result of their reduced quality. The conversion of fuels to the equivalent of oil (kg-oil eq) was based on a net calorific value of 42 MJ/kg (Goedkoop et al. 2013).

Results from the comparative analysis of environmental impact categories of electricity production in Poland and the Czech Republic are presented in Fig. 2. For all impact categories, higher environmental indicators for electricity generation in Poland have been demonstrated. The greenhouse gas emission factor for the electricity generation system in the Czech Republic was 984.90 kg-CO₂ eq/FU in 2000, while in 2050 the potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions was projected to be 331.40 kg-CO₂ eq/FU. The starting value of greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 through the next 50 years is projected to decrease by 66.1%. In the case of the electricity generation system in Poland in the year 2000, it amounted to 1135.57 kg-CO₂ eq/FU, and in the year 2050 is expected to amount to 460.37 kg-CO₂ eq/FU, which for Poland, is 59.45% lower than the starting value.

Human toxicity for the electricity generation system in the Czech Republic in 2000 amounted to 249.12 kg-1,4-DB eq/FU, while in 2050 it is projected to be 245.58 kg-1,4-DB eq/FU. Human toxicity for electricity generation in Poland in 2000 was 850.36 kg-1,4-DB eq/FU, but in 2050 is projected to be 248.60 kg-1,4-DB eq/FU. The projected change in the Czech Republic for human toxicity for the electricity generation system was negligible and amounted to just over 1%, while in Poland it was 70.77%.

Particular matter formation (PMF) for the electricity generation system in the Czech Republic in 2000 was 0.59 kg-PM10 eq/FU, but in 2050 is projected to be 0.44 kg-PM10 eq/FU. The particulate matter formation for the electricity generation system in Poland in 2000 was 1.72 kg-PM10 eq/FU and in 2050 is projected to be 0.76 kg-PM10 eq/FU. In the case of PMF, the values in both the Czech Republic and Poland are expected to decrease, in the Czech Republic by 25.44% and in Poland by 55.81%. While analyzing the results of the PMF emission, it was found that the emissions during the years from 2020 to 2050 in Poland are expected to decrease much faster than in the Czech Republic.

Fossil depletion for the electricity generation system in the Czech Republic in 2000 amounted to 258.39 kg-oil eq/FU, but in 2050 is expected to amount to 84.00 kg-oil eq/FU. Fossil depletion for electricity generation in Poland in 2000 amounted to 299.40 kg-oil eq/FU, while in 2050 it is expected to amount to 135.74 kg-oil eq/FU. In the case of the Czech Republic fossil depletion for electricity generation is expected to decrease by 67.49%, and in Poland in 2050, fossil depletion for electricity generation could be lower by 54.66%.

It has been shown that despite the decreasing tendency of environmental impact in the Czech Republic, a slight increase in the impact related to all the impact categories analyzed was indicated between 2045 and 2050, including human toxicity, where the increase is the highest. This is primarily due to a slight increase in the share of solid fuels in the electricity generation structure in 2050 compared to 2045, as shown in Table 4.

A detailed analysis of the impact categories for individual sources of electricity in the Czech Republic and Poland was made in order to determine the environmental determinants of the life cycle assessment. The determinants of the environmental life-cycle assessment of current and future electricity generation systems in the Czech Republic are presented in Fig. 3. The environmental assessment of Czech electricity sources shows that the greenhouse gas emission factor is determined by the amount of solids used, and in particular lignite. Life cycle analysis showed that lignite consumption is the factor most affecting human toxicity. Likewise, the effects on the impact categories, particulate matter formation and fossil depletion, have indicated similar outcomes. The solids in the electricity generation system in the Czech Republic were mostly lignite over the period analyzed. It was shown that lignite consumption is associated with high impact in all categories. In the case of the impact category particulate matter formation, the increase in biomass-waste consumption for electricity production from 2025 also results in an increase in the environmental index in this impact category. It has been shown that a significant increase in the consumption of natural gas for the production of electricity affects the increase of greenhouse gas emissions and the PMF. Increasing the consumption of natural gas to produce electricity after 2025 also increases the value of the fossil depletion index. Based on the analyses performed, it was shown that, despite the fact that the share of nuclear energy increases in electrical energy production in the Czech Republic, it is not associated with an increase in environmental impact in any of the impact categories, and the same was demonstrated in the case of solar, wind, and hydropower energy.

The determinants of the environmental life-cycle assessment of current and future electricity generation systems in Poland are presented in Fig. 4. The environmental assessment of electricity sources in Poland showed that the greenhouse gas emission factor is determined by the amount of consumed solids, both hard coal and lignite. The life cycle analysis showed that factors affecting human toxicity are primarily influenced by lignite consumption. It was shown that, despite the fact that lignite consumption in Poland is smaller than hard coal consumption (only about 40%), it significantly influences the human toxicity index. This is mainly related to lignite mining, where fly ash still continues to be a significant environmental concern. Particularly high exposure occurs in underground mines in the areas directly related to the extraction and transportation of raw materials and the servicing of mechanical equipment in the mines. Most of the personnel employed in these positions exceed the applicable hygiene exposure standards for dust (Mikołajczyk et al. 2010).

In the case of the impact categories, particulate matter formation and fossil depletion, the consumption of solids was shown to be most influential. The increase in biomass-waste consumption for electricity production from 2025 also resulted in an increase in the environmental index in the case of particulate matter formation. Increasing the use of natural gas for electricity production from 2015 resulted in increased fossil depletion and greenhouse gas emissions. It was also found that the planned (projected) introduction of nuclear energy after 2035 would not adversely affect the analyzed impact categories.

Based on the characterization results, it is not possible to determine in which categories the impact is to be considered significant or to compare indicators for different impact categories. This is why standardization and weighting of the results based on standardization indicators and weightings developed for the ReCiPe Endpoint 2008 method were performed. The set of indicators presented in Table 6 was used.

Regarding the analyses carried out, the weighting stage was necessary in view of the comparative analysis of the impact of the individual energy systems of the analyzed countries for each year. Tables 7 and 8 outline the results of the life cycle assessment, taking into account the stages of standardization and weighting divided into particular damage categories: human health, ecosystem, and resource consumption calculated according to the ReCiPe Endpoint H/A method.

On the basis of the analyses of the sum of the damage values ​​expressed in Pt/FU at the beginning of the analyzed period (2000 through 2050), it was found that in both the Czech Republic and Poland, reduction of negative impact on the environment will take place. In the Czech Republic, this is expected to be by 57.98% (from 78.30 to 31.00 Pt/FU) and in Poland by 60.4% (from 105.47 to 44.31 Pt/FU). Comparative analysis of the damage categories of current and future energy generation systems in the Czech Republic and Poland showed that all categories of damage, including Human Health, Ecosystems, and Resources, were lower for the Czech Republic in all the years analyzed.

In the Czech Republic, the Human Health category represented an average of 50% of all damage categories. In 2000, it was 52% while in 2050 it is expected to decrease to 49%. The Ecosystem category represented about 21% of all damage categories each year. On the other hand, in the case of impact categories, Resources showed a projected increase from 26% in 2000 to 30% in 2050.

In Poland, the Human Health category in 2000 was 49% and in 2050 is expected to decrease to 46%. The Ecosystem category represents about 21% of all damage categories each year. On the other hand, in the case of impact categories, Resources showed a projected increase from 30% in 2000 to 33% in 2050.