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2018 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

7. Concluding Remarks

Author : James Johnson

Published in: The US-China Military and Defense Relationship during the Obama Presidency

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Abstract

The final chapter draws out the book’s key findings, themes, and contribution to the existing literature. It begins with a brief review of the overarching arguments made by each of the case studies. Firmly grounded in the experience of the case studies, this chapter returns to the empirical and theoretical gaps in the literature, described in Chap. 2, and underscores the book’s contribution to the scholarly understanding of United States–China security relations. As a corollary, it affirms the continued relevance of the security dilemma concept to elucidate the deterioration of United States–China military and defense relations during the Obama presidency. Next, the chapter reflects on possible future directions for United States–China relations in the military realm under the stewardship of the new Trump administration. Early indications do not bode well for the trajectory of this crucial security dyad, or for strategic stability in the increasingly volatile, militarized, and crisis-prone Asia-Pacific. Finally, it highlights several implications that follow from the findings of this research, and suggests viable directions future research might take from where this book leaves off.

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previous chapter Chinese Evolving Approaches to Nuclear ‘War-Fighting’: An Emerging Security Dilemma?

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‘Dual-use’ features are also associated with several other related Chinese technologically advanced military capabilities analyzed in this book including cyberspace; EW; missile defense, ASATs; and long-range precision-guided cruise and ballistic missiles.

The Chinese concept of ‘strategic deterrence’ describes a broader and multifaceted version of deterrence that includes nuclear and conventional, as well as cyber, space, and EW domains. See Chase S.M., & Chan, A. (2016). China’s evolving approach to ‘integrated strategic deterrence’. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

These warhead and targeting ambiguities could equally apply to other medium- and long-range ballistic and cruise missile systems fielded by China.

As Chap. 6 noted, to date no clear evidence has emerged to corroborate reports that China has deployed (or mated) tactical nuclear warheads with delivery vehicles.

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For example, an Israeli war game conducted in 2013 demonstrated how the use and threat of cyberattacks might very quickly escalate a crisis, in this case bringing the United States and Russia to the brink of conflict in a possible Middle East war. Opals-Rome, B. (2013, November 14). Israeli cyber game drags U.S., Russia to brink of mid-east war. Defense News, 14 November 2013. Available at: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20131115/C4ISRNET07/311150020/Israeli-Cyber-Game-Drags-US-Russia-Brink-Mideast-War (Accessed: 10 June 2017).

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Recent evidence suggests that the relentless modernization of China’s military forces has prompted Japan and South Korea to develop an offensive strike (or ‘counterstrike’) capability. See Lyon, R. (2017). The growth of offensive strike capabilities in Northeast Asia. The Strategist—Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 24 July 2017. Available at: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/growth-offensive-strike-capabilities-northeast-asia/ (Accessed: 25 July 2017).

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In July 2017, for example, Indonesia renamed a resource-rich section of the North Natuna Islands, which overlaps with China’s ‘nine-dash line’ in the South China Seas. Additionally, Malaysia took on a more hawkish line against maritime encroachments in the South China Seas, particularly vis-à-vis China, despite its active engagement with Beijing on the ‘one belt, one road’ initiative. Parameswaran, P. (2017). Beware of the illusion of South China Sea calm. The Diplomat, 21 July 2017. Available at: http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/beware-the-illusion-of-south-china-sea-calm/ (Accessed: 24 July 2017).

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Title: Concluding Remarks
Author: James Johnson
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: The US-China Military and Defense Relationship during the Obama Presidency
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-75837-4

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-75838-1

Copyright Year: 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75838-1_7