20. Conclusion: The LDP Loses Trust and the Illusion of Invincibility

The October 27, 2024, general election for the House of Representatives (HR) was a disaster for the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Kōmeitō. How did the LDP manage to squander its dominance? Drawing on the insights presented in this volume, we argue that one of the defining differences between the 2021 and 2024 general elections was the basis on which voters judged the ruling party. In 2021, the LDP was seen as competent, or at least as more capable of governing than the opposition. By 2024, this perception had eroded. The election was no longer about competence, but about integrity. Revelations of ties between LDP politicians and the Unification Church, combined with the reemergence of factional slush fund scandals, painted a picture of a party unwilling or unable to reform. The sense that the LDP could no longer be trusted, on top of growing frustration with its policy direction, turned disaffection into rejection. In this concluding chapter, we synthesize the key analytical takeaways from the chapters in the volume to offer a coherent narrative for understanding the election results. In the process, we underline the historical significance of the 2024 election for Japanese politics and place it into comparative context with other incumbent party defeats in democratic elections around the world.