E-fuels are not yet commercially available. So far, there are only a few demonstration plants. However, a number of e-fuel production projects are planned worldwide, the majority of them in Europe.
IEA. (January 23, 2024). Number of globally announced e-fuel projects¹ by region from 2012 to 2040 [graph]. In Statista. Accessed November 14, 2024, from https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1454509/umfrage/anzahl-der-global-angekuendigten-e-fuel-projekte-nach-region/
Statista
According to the statistics platform Statista, 64 projects for the production of e-fuels are planned worldwide between 2024 and 2040, the majority of them in Europe. With only two projects, Australia has the fewest research facilities planned.
Electricity-based synthetic fuels, known as e-fuels, can provide carbon-neutral transportation for conventional vehicles with combustion engines. At the same time, the existing infrastructure of filling stations can continue to be used. E-fuels would be one option for replacing fossil fuels such as petrol and diesel, and thus contribute to decarbonization. Critics counter that e-fuels have a poor overall efficiency. They point out that there is a lack of production capacity and that other means of transport need e-fuels more urgently than passenger cars. They also argue that it will not be possible to achieve competitive prices in the foreseeable future.
Study: E-fuels could Replace Fossil Fuels at Affordable Prices
According to a study by the consulting firm Frontier Economics on behalf of Uniti Bundesverband EnergieMittelstand e.V., however, significant cost reductions in e-fuel production can be expected in the medium and long term. In addition, the study sees sufficient e-fuel production potential for the complete replacement of fossil fuels.
The long-term production cost framework forecast (including transport to Germany) for e-gasoline of € 1.10 to € 1.63/l and for e-diesel of € 1.22 to € 1.80/ l is based on third-party studies by Concawe & Aramco (2024), Öko-Institut & Agora (2024) and Fraunhofer (2021), supplemented by the study by Agora & Frontier Economics (2018). According to Uniti, the price that settles within the range depends, among other things, on the production locations where e-fuels are manufactured and the magnitude of the positive economies of scale.
The long-term e-fuels production potential of 87,000 TWh/year at suitable windy and sunny locations outside Europe is higher than the current global final energy consumption of fossil fuels of 76,000 TWh/year (as of 2021), according to Uniti. E-fuels could completely replace today's fossil fuels throughout Europe from 2037 (e-gasoline) and 2043 (e-diesel), respectively. The prerequisite is an ideal regulatory framework for a rapid production ramp-up.
