Contemplating China’s Future

China’s future is one of the most important variables in international affairs. While the world has witnessed the extraordinary socio-economic growth and development of China over the past four decades, the country is now at a series of junctures and faces unprecedentedly complex challenges. It has achieved “middle income” status, but in order to navigate through the “middle income trap” and become a fully developed and modern economy will require not only multiple structural adjustments in the economic structure, but also a significant liberalization of the political system. This article explores four alternative pathways that China might follow in the coming years, and it posits potential consequences of each path.