24. Critical Wave Groups Versus Direct Monte-Carlo Simulations for Typical Stability Failure Modes of a Container Ship

In the second Generation Intact Stability Criteria currently developed at IMO, the process of direct stability assessment (DSA) and providing operational guidance (OG) are interlaced with a requirement of performing a large number of numerical simulations. However, extreme roll motions that are generally behind stability failures are rare events as any extreme responses. An additional significant difficulty is that roll response as stochastic process is usually non-Gaussian, therefore, close-form expressions for the probability of extreme roll responses, based on spectral moments, are in general not applicable. A practical approach proposed recently exploits the idea that extreme events occur due to the encountering of extreme wave groups (critical wave episodes). This could alleviate the need for a large number of simulations by focusing on the systematic identification of those deterministic wave sequences that generate unacceptable roll responses. Taking a first step towards a systematic validation process of the wave groups method, the present study compares the exceedance probabilities of 40° roll angle and of g/2 lateral acceleration, computed by the critical wave groups method with Monte-Carlo simulations for a large containership. The nonlinear seakeeping code rolls is used as mathematical model of ship motion. Typical loading conditions where various stability failure modes can occur are examined.