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2021 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Degree-Days and Agro-meteorological Indices in CMIP5 RCP8.5 Future Climate—Results for Central and Southeast Europe

Authors : Hristo Chervenkov, Georgi Gadzhev, Vladimir Ivanov, Kostadin Ganev

Published in: Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The present paper is continuation of our recent study and analyzes the potential changes of residential heating and cooling degree-days as well as three stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change (growing season length, sum of the active and sum of the effective temperatures) for Central and Southeast Europe over near past (1975–2004), near (2021–2050) and far (2070–2099) future periods. All indicators were calculated from the output data of our simulations with the regional climate model RegCM driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the near past and by the global circulation model HadGEM2-ES under RCP8.5 CMIP5 radiative forcing scenario for the future periods. The validation of the model-based indices against their counterparts, computed from the observational dataset E-OBS, shows that the model reproduces their spatial variability and magnitude generally well. A linear bias correction of the considered indices is also demonstrated. Consistent with the general trend of the mean and extreme temperatures over the region, the study reveals a decrease of the heating degree days and considerable increase of the cooling degree days and the agro-meteorological indices practically over the whole domain in the future. The detected changes are fairly not symmetrical - the relative increase of the cooling degree days is significantly bigger than the decrease of the heating degree-days.

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Title: Degree-Days and Agro-meteorological Indices in CMIP5 RCP8.5 Future Climate—Results for Central and Southeast Europe
Authors: Hristo Chervenkov
Georgi Gadzhev
Vladimir Ivanov
Kostadin Ganev
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-70189-5

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-70190-1

Copyright Year: 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70190-1_2