Democratic Recession, Autocratization, and Democratic Backlash in Southeast Asia

Table of Contents

1. Frontmatter

2. Chapter 1. Democratic Decline and Rising Autocratization in Southeast Asia: An Organizing Framework

   James Ockey

   Abstract

   Beginning with the military coup in Thailand in 2014, democracy appears to have receded across the Southeast Asia region, in some cases suddenly, as in Thailand or Myanmar, in others more gradually, as in the Philippines or Indonesia. What are the causes of this democratic recession? What patterns exist? In this chapter, we set out existing literature seeking to explain the shift from democratization to autocratization. We propose an organizing framework to develop a more integrated approach to understanding the shifting politics of democracy and autocracy in Southeast Asia. We then look at the overall patterns of democratic recession in the region, asking whether the tide can be reversed. To study reverse tides, we introduce the concept of democratic backlash, a direct reaction to autocratic events that may mobilize opposition, and, over time, slow or even reverse autocratization.

3. Chapter 2. At the Sharp Edge of Power: Philippines–China Relations and Democratic Erosion Under Duterte

   Aries A. Arugay, Justin Keith A. Baquisal

   Abstract

   This chapter examines the perceived influence of China on democratic erosion in the Philippines, tracing the history of the diplomatic relationship from the administrations of Macapagal-Arroyo (2004–2010) through Aquino III (2010–2016) to the Duterte administration (2016–2022). China’s “sharp power” strategy aims to win hearts and minds and to distract and influence elites and the public within emerging democracies for its geopolitical benefit. However, it is not Chinese influence per se that has primarily contributed to democratic erosion, but rather local elites employing the “China factor”—namely access to alternative credit, China’s overseas development policy, and its pragmatism in working with illiberal elites—that has become an important tool enabling political leaders to undermine democratic constraints on their power. In this sense, Chinese policies, while aimed not at eroding democracy but rather at pursuing geostrategic advantage, have played an important secondary role in democratic erosion. The chapter unpacks how the China factor has been entangled with endogenous and exogenous sources of Philippine democratic erosion since 2016. Use of the “China factor” to erode democratic constraints also makes Chinese influence vulnerable to democratic backlash from the public.

4. Chapter 3. Anies Baswedan and Substate Populism in Jakarta, Indonesia

   Amalia Sustikarini

   Abstract

   This chapter explores the concept of substate populism in Jakarta Special Province, Indonesia, by analyzing the leadership of the Governor of Jakarta, Anies Baswedan. Populism began to regain attention and attract scholarly debate during the Jakarta gubernatorial election in 2017 that brought Anies Baswedan to power. His victory was supported by mass rallies against the incumbent Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok), who was accused of blasphemy. The movement that opposed Ahok is called Action to Defend Islam (Aksi Bela Islam) and is categorized as Islamist populism. During his campaign and later governorship, Anies has persistently emphasized “us vs them” as one of the basic tenets of populism in his speeches and some of his policies. Anies’ detachment from any political parties also represents his subscription to anti-establishment rhetoric, one of the essential characteristics of populism. Against this backdrop, this paper will investigate the model of substate populism in Jakarta, Indonesia, through three factors: decentralization, pre-existing resentment/anxiety, and the capacity to dominate local narratives. This chapter will also examine Anies’ populist policies and rhetoric to analyze his populist leadership style as well as its mixed impact on the post-democratic transition period in Indonesia.

5. Chapter 4. In Limbo: Islamist Populism and Democratic Stagnation in Malaysia

   Syaza Shukri

   Abstract

   This chapter examines democratic backsliding in Malaysia in the contemporary era. For decades, particularly under Mahathir Mohamad, UMNO used authoritarian means to maintain control over government institutions. This chapter contends that, since losing power for the first time in 2018, UMNO has had to adopt new tactics to regain control. Both UMNO and the Islamic PAS party have resorted to populism to resurrect the narrative of Malay-Muslims under threat. In adopting this new tactic, elites acknowledge the power of populism, long entrenched in local Islamic discourse, as a means of reinforcing Malay voter support even as the Malays become more politically diverse. Islamist populist rhetoric aimed at Malays has further weakened the civil rights of Chinese and Indian minorities. Malaysia, like other Southeast Asian countries, has seen democratic backsliding in which Malays demand protection of their purported rights at the expense of the minority by employing populist language such as ‘us’ versus ‘them.’ The current ethno-religious discourse has been present for some time, but it is now being reinvigorated in an innovative authoritarian manner. If Islamic populism continues to grow, democratic consolidation may be unachievable, and a hybrid authoritarian government with democratic aspects may be entrenched in Malaysia.

6. Chapter 5. Democratic Backsliding in Malaysia: Executive Aggrandizement Under Muhyiddin Yassin’s Government

   Naimah S. Talib

   Abstract

   Malaysia’s fledgling democracy was put to the test in early 2020 when a political crisis led to the collapse of the government, prompting the resignation of the prime minister and a realignment of political parties. Consequent elite negotiations resulted in a government with a small majority, led by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. Comprising former ethnocentric parties that had lost power in 2018, the government lacked a strong commitment to democratic norms and values. The executive under Muhyiddin was then able to manipulate existing legislative procedures to undermine the opposition, stifle debate in parliament and expand its power, resulting in an erosion of democratic accountability. Muhyiddin’s use of COVID-19 emergency powers and his suspension of parliament further undermined the role of the legislature. This chapter argues that the public health crisis during Muhyiddin Yassin’s tenure as prime minister, from March 2020 to August 2021, enabled the executive to expand its power by avoiding constitutional constraints and institutional checks on its power. This process of incremental executive aggrandizement was done through legal channels, through the manipulation of rules, and by exploiting opportunities to increase its power.

7. Chapter 6. Propagating and Resisting Authoritarian Innovation Online: Thailand’s ‘ROTC Cyber’ Activity

   Pasit Wongngamdee

   Abstract

   The Thai military, beginning in the 1980s, has attempted to indoctrinate civilians to accept a military role in politics. Since the 2014 coup, the military has found a novel technique as it has begun indoctrinating civilians on social media. A crucial indoctrination channel is the new military activity named ‘ROTC Cyber’—where groups of ROTC students are mobilized to disseminate pro-military authoritarian propaganda on social media. This chapter treats ROTC Cyber as a case study of an authoritarian innovation in Thailand. The chapter begins with a discussion of the development of ROTC Cyber. Next, the ROTC Cyber operation on Thai social media will be explored. Finally, the effectiveness and impact of ROTC Cyber on military indoctrination will be assessed. The chapter finds that ROTC Cyber’s propaganda lacks coherence and visibility, as the activity has faced limitations as well as resistance from the ROTC students themselves and from internet users. Thus, the activity is largely ineffective. The case of ROTC Cyber demonstrates that not all authoritarian innovations, no matter how innovative, will succeed.

8. Chapter 7. Rural Grassroots Governance-Building in Myanmar

   Charles David Crumpton, Mariana Cifuentes, Julia Roche

   Abstract

   After decades of authoritarian military control, in 2011 Myanmar transitioned to a partially democratic hybrid regime, with a democratically elected government sharing governmental authority with military leadership. This study investigates the tentative engagement of rural communities with Myanmar’s Union Government (UG) institutions during the 2011–2021 semi-democratic period. Focusing on the lowest administrative levels of government, the study considers new “democratic openings” wherein citizens as stakeholders sought to become part of decision-making concerning their community needs. The central argument is that governance-building in developing nations is usually tentative and incremental and does not meet the expectations of the international development community, which tends to simplistically dichotomise between “good” and “bad” governance. The study uses a multi-dimensional analytic approach that more thoroughly and realistically assesses the nature of grassroots governance development in a setting characterised by weak institutions and limited resources. The study demonstrates the usefulness of this approach in case studies in Myanmar’s Chin, Kayah, and Kayin states.

9. Chapter 8. Returned Migrants and Democratization in Village Head Elections in Indonesia: A Glimpse of Hope from Indramayu

   Khairu Roojiqien Sobandi

   Abstract

   The democratic transition that began in Indonesia in 1998 has faced obstacles in the form of authoritarian enclaves at the village level, which have limited participation and accountability. Such weakened norms of participation and accountability are a primary reason new democracies are prone to recession. The persistence of pre-democratic era elites in authoritarian enclaves highlights a challenge within the process of democratization: how does democratization facilitate the emergence of new elites who might embrace and promote democratic norms? This chapter focuses on this question through a case study of a village head election in a rural area of Indramayu, a location that is well-known for its returned Indonesian migrant workers’ community. This chapter finds in Indramayu a notable change in rural areas where many villages before the 1998 transition were governed by political families. In recent years, such leaders are being replaced by village heads with a new leadership style. This development results from political reform after the 1998 transition in Indonesia and the presence of returned Indonesian migrant workers who contribute to the changing village economies. This chapter shows that the emergence of new elites can break up authoritarian enclaves and deter democratic recession in rural Indonesia.

10. Chapter 9. Regimes, Repression, Repertoires: Student Protest Movements and the Repertoires of Contention in the Philippines and Indonesia

    Juhn Chris P. Espia

    Abstract

    The literature on the repression–dissent nexus shows us that: (a) autocrats are innovative in terms of how their regimes deal specifically with different forms of collective action; (b) one such indicator of this innovation is that repression is no longer a monopoly of the state; and (c) shifts and innovations in protest movement repertoires are a form of democratic innovation in response to state and private agent action. This chapter examines how repression and facilitation by state and private agents shape the choice of repertoire by movements over cycles of contention. It compares the cases of student protest movements in the Philippines and Indonesia, both of which have been politically active since the 1960s. This chapter argues that when democracy is threatened by attempts to undermine it, student protest movements are oftentimes the vanguard of the opposition and are manifestations of a particular form of democratic backlash. Repertoires of student protest and how autocrats attempt to repress them share a dynamic relationship across cycles of contention and democratic backlash.

11. Chapter 10. Myanmar: From Hybrid Democracy to Violent Autocracy

    Mariana Cifuentes

    Abstract

    Since 2010, political and economic reforms in Myanmar have made it possible to update its governance structure and address economic policies that had left it deeply impoverished. The new governance structure put in place a semi-democratic experiment that maintained the military values and control apparatus, while also allowing for a competitive electoral system. This was a bold autocratic innovation: although presented as democracy, in practice the governance practices provided extensive military control and disempowered the elected government. Despite the constraints on participation, the authoritarian innovations transformed the relationship between Myanmar citizens and those in power; they allowed citizens to experience some of the benefits of living in a democracy, while also witnessing the democratic deficit. However, the hybrid democratic experiment was short-lived, abruptly ending in early 2021 after a military coup d’état. The closing of the political space led to a democratic backlash against the military government. Although impossible to foresee the future, the chapter describes how the absence of legitimacy of the military-led government has placed the country in a risky political trajectory, while at the same time perhaps providing a historical opportunity for long-lasting change for Myanmar citizens.

12. Backmatter