Determinants of Fertility Intention and Behavior Under Economic, Health and Policy Constraints in China

This study investigates the individual characteristics associated with fertility constraints. Specifically, this study uses data from the China Labor Force Dynamic Survey (CLDS2018), which includes information on individuals’ number of children and their ideal number of children. This allows us to assess whether individuals’ fertility choices align with their actual number of children or if they are constrained by factors such as health, economic circumstances, and government policies. Employing Probit regression analysis, the research identifies factors contributing to the ideal-behavior gap, representing the overall constraint on fertility. The findings reveal that individuals with gender preferences, higher education levels, residing in developed regions, and employed in government are more likely to experience a substantial ideal-behavior gap, implying constraints on their fertility behaviors due to factors such as health, economics, or policies. In addition, the study identifies individual characteristics specifically associated with facing restrictions imposed by the two-child policy. Focusing on the policy constraint, the findings reveal that older females and individuals with agricultural hukou, particularly those who prefer daughters, are less likely to be constrained by the two-child policy.