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2022 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

3. Development of E-Mobility

Authors : Kaan Y. Ciftci, Alex Michel, Patrick Siegfried

Published in: The Potential Impact of E-Mobility on the Automotive Value Chain

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter analyzes numerous relevant studies, forecast, scenario models, surveys, and reports, in order to give a profound statement about the future development of e-mobility. Reports and studies used in this book contain very current and deep industry insights from research departments of renowned consultancies and investment banks. Based on the analyzed studies and models, an average value will be calculated and will be used for the forecast model of this book. The forecast model lays the scientific starting point for the following chapters of the book.
First of all, a big picture of the current EV market will be given, in order to understand the current key markets, market share of EVs, key OEMs, etc., within the automotive e-mobility industry. Within the three core markets of EVs, China is leading the global EV market with a strong focus on BEVs rather than on PHEVs. Additionally, this chapter shows that EVs are constantly increasing market share and represent a global growth market. Tesla leads the EV sales of American OEMs. In Europe, Renault and the VW group are predominantly European OEM sales leaders followed by BMW. In the Asian market, Nissan and BYD are dominating the EV sales of Asian automobile manufacturers in 2016.
In the second part of this chapter, different influencing factors will be evaluated. Subsequently, different forecast models and scenario models will be outlined. Therefore, exclusive reports from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan, and Deloitte will be analyzed.
From the revealed information an own forecast model for the development of e-mobility will be derived.
The result of the forecast analysis shows that the global electric vehicle sales will surpass the sales of conventional internal combustion engines between 2030 and 2040.
The main drivers derived from the analyzed reports contain: Decreasing cost of batteries within the future, shifting consumer preferences toward EVs, decreasing consumer prices and finance cost, improving charging infrastructure, increasing battery life, decreasing cost of ownership, increasing EV driving range, decreasing EV manufacturing costs, increasing ICE manufacturing costs, ambitious EV sales targets for China, falling diesel sales and residual vehicle pricing in EU, and reduced EV charging infrastructure costs.

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Footnotes
1
If 24.73 million EVs in 2030 equal 7 trillion Dollar s revenue, then 107.55 million EVs by 2050 equal 30.44 trillion Dollars revenue.
 
Literature
go back to reference Bank of America Merill Lynch. (2017). Global electric vehicle primer: Fully charged by 2050. Bank of America Merill Lynch, Automobile Industry. Bank of America Merill Lynch. (2017). Global electric vehicle primer: Fully charged by 2050. Bank of America Merill Lynch, Automobile Industry.
go back to reference Bank of America Merrill Lynch. (2018). Global electric vehicles: A look at what changed in 2017. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Automobile Industry. Bank of America Merrill Lynch. (2018). Global electric vehicles: A look at what changed in 2017. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Automobile Industry.
go back to reference Deloitte. (2017a). Mobilität 2.0. Deloitte, Automotive intellience; Automobile Industry. Deloitte. (2017a). Mobilität 2.0. Deloitte, Automotive intellience; Automobile Industry.
go back to reference J.P. Morgan. (2017). EVs: Expectations versus reality. J.P. Morgan. J.P. Morgan. (2017). EVs: Expectations versus reality. J.P. Morgan.
go back to reference Morgan Stanley. (2017). Electric vehicles: On the charge. Morgan Stanley, Automobile Industry. Morgan Stanley. (2017). Electric vehicles: On the charge. Morgan Stanley, Automobile Industry.
go back to reference UBS. (2017). Global Autos/UBS Evidence Lab. Automobile Industry. UBS. (2017). Global Autos/UBS Evidence Lab. Automobile Industry.
Metadata
Title
Development of E-Mobility
Authors
Kaan Y. Ciftci
Alex Michel
Patrick Siegfried
Copyright Year
2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95599-1_3

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