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2023 | Book

Development of World Trade in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

A Case Study on the Czech Republic and the Russian Federation

Authors: Jakub Horák, Veronika Machová, Valentina Vycheslavovna Mantulenko, Tomáš Krulický

Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland

Book Series : Contributions to Economics

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About this book

This book examines the development of world trade during the COVID-19 pandemic, also taking international trade between the Czech Republic and the Russian Federation into account as a case study. Using an advanced method of artificial neural networks, it evaluates a long time series and predicts the development of trade between the two countries.

The book further analyzes the specifications of export items on both sides and the dependence of the Czech Republic on Russia in terms of raw materials, which is not sustainable. It discusses the need for a political and business consensus, as well as a long-term investment plan to address this issue. Finally, it sheds light on the Czech companies actively operating in Russia, especially in the engineering, automotive, energy, and food industry. The book predicts the future bilateral trade relations between the two countries and the expected decrease in the demand on the side of Russian customers.

The book will appeal to students, scholars, and researchers of economics and finance in general, macro- and microeconomics, statistics, and trade analytics in particular, as well as professionals and international trade companies interested in a better understanding of world trade developments and the future trade scenarios between the Czech Republic and Russia.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Introduction
Abstract
The introductory chapter acquaints the readers with the issue of international trade and the related external economic relations. It accentuates the importance of international trade for individual countries and the significant role it plays in terms of the global economy. The chapter also outlines the basic changes that international trade has undergone in recent years and that have significantly affected its development. In addition to the above, the text also points to the obstacles international trade has had to face during its existence, whether it is war conflicts, financial crises, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, or other sudden events (such as the blocking of the Suez Canal).
Jakub Horák, Veronika Machová, Valentina Vycheslavovna Mantulenko, Tomáš Krulický
Chapter 2. World Trade Development
Abstract
The content of this chapter focuses in more detail on the development of international trade from a historical point of view, mapping its development from its beginnings until now. Attention is paid mainly to the development of economic theories related to international trade and their individual stages (mercantilism, traditional political economy, or neoclassical economy). The text also deals with the current trends in international trade related both to the development of international trade in goods and international trade in services within the EU as well as globally. The chapter further analyses three major leaders in the field of international trade that show large volumes of trade, specifically China, the USA, and Germany. Finally, the chapter acquaints the readers with interesting studies and their results achieved by many researchers that deal with the issue of international trade.
Jakub Horák, Veronika Machová, Valentina Vycheslavovna Mantulenko, Tomáš Krulický
Chapter 3. Development of the World Trade in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemics
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly affected every area of human life. It has had an impact, negative but also positive in some cases, also on matters concerning global trade. This chapter provides theoretical findings on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade, with particular attention being paid to the problems this illness caused to exporting, importing, or neighbouring countries. In addition, it also expresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade in numerical terms. The text also presents specific examples of surveys conducted in terms of global trade in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, it also mentions the basic goals of the research conducted, the methods applied, and the results achieved. The conclusion of this chapter outlines the post-pandemic development of international trade and its possible future trend.
Jakub Horák, Veronika Machová, Valentina Vycheslavovna Mantulenko, Tomáš Krulický
Chapter 4. Development of International Trade Between the Czech Republic and the Russian Federation
Abstract
This chapter analyses the economic and political relations between the Russian Federation and the Czech Republic. The text maps interesting events that have affected Russian-Czech relations and describes the alternating development of trade between the Czech Republic and Russia. Particular attention is paid to the opportunities the Russian market offers to the Czech Republic and vice versa. In addition, the current state and the development of trade between the CR and Russia are described from a statistical perspective. In conclusion, the chapter analyses the impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global trade and the impacts of the invasion of Ukraine on Czech-Russian trade relations.
Jakub Horák, Veronika Machová, Valentina Vycheslavovna Mantulenko, Tomáš Krulický
Chapter 5. Methodology
Abstract
The chapter that focuses on methodology describes the structure of the data that provide a background for the research. Specifically, these are monthly data concerning the volume of export, import, and balance of trade between Russia and the Czech Republic for a specific period, or more precisely, for more than 27 years. In addition to the specification of the data set, this chapter also describes the methods used and the process based on which the results are obtained. As the main tool, the method of artificial neural networks is used, specifically, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) as one of the most commonly used networks in practice, and one of the latest models of neural networks, a three-layer feedforward neural network RBF.
Jakub Horák, Veronika Machová, Valentina Vycheslavovna Mantulenko, Tomáš Krulický
Chapter 6. Data Evaluation: Results
Abstract
The chapter dealing with the data evaluation analyses in detail the achieved results within the activities performed to achieve the set goal of the publication. The values of balance of trade, export, and import are calculated for Russia and the Czech Republic on the basis of the data available for more than 27 years. For the calculations, the novel and innovative method of artificial neural networks is used. The seasonal effect (lag) of the time series is considered in the form of experiments. Tens of thousands of neural structures are trained, out of which those with the best characteristics are selected. Their ability to copy the development of a given variable and predict it is analysed in detail. This chapter is supplemented by many graphs that provide a complex analysis of the development of trade between the CR and Russia.
Jakub Horák, Veronika Machová, Valentina Vycheslavovna Mantulenko, Tomáš Krulický
Chapter 7. Conclusion
Abstract
This chapter provides an overall overview of the issues addressed in the preceding chapters dealing with international trade, with a focus on trade between the Czech Republic and the Russian Federation during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, the principle of international trade is mentioned, along with its importance and its position in the economy. Moreover, there are described the findings concerning the impact of the pandemic on international trade, including an outline of its further development. With regard to the current situation, it also provides forecasts of the development of the trade between the CR and Russia.
Jakub Horák, Veronika Machová, Valentina Vycheslavovna Mantulenko, Tomáš Krulický
Metadata
Title
Development of World Trade in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Authors
Jakub Horák
Veronika Machová
Valentina Vycheslavovna Mantulenko
Tomáš Krulický
Copyright Year
2023
Electronic ISBN
978-3-031-27257-8
Print ISBN
978-3-031-27256-1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27257-8