Drones and US Grand Strategy in the Contemporary World

The lethal weaponization of drones within the US’ counterterrorism strategy is a complex narrative encapsulated in the “Two Cities” analogy. In one “City” (the US), drones serve as tactical tools for targeted operations, reducing warfare costs and risks. In the other “City” (targeted states, like Afghanistan and Pakistan), drones provoke collateral damage, territorial violations, and anti-American sentiments. While effective in achieving short-term goals, drones’ countervailing effects prompt critical reflections on US grand strategy. Despite controversies, drones are valuable assets, forming a paradox worthy of exploration. Their advancement sparks concern over destabilization, surveillance, and adverse security implications. Balancing the tactical gains of drones with their potential consequences necessitates a deeper investigation.

This chapter delves deeply into the nexus of grand strategy and drones. It assesses literature, typologies of grand strategy, and pertinent theories, serving as a critical lens for the study. The analysis underscores the influence of tactical force application and technological adoption on grand strategic choices. US grand strategy typologies are explored, offering an analytical framework for understanding the evolution of post-9/11 US drone warfare. The review reveals gaps in examining drone warfare's impact on grand strategy, notably in areas like civilian casualties, proliferation security dilemmas, and blowback from targeted states. The chapter argues that drones’ tactical usage bears substantial strategic and political ramifications in targeted states, detrimentally affecting US grand strategy.

This chapter evaluates the historical contribution of drones to advancing US grand strategy. It examines the evolutionary trajectory and utilization of drones by successive US administrations, tracing their origins from World War I to the Kosovo War. Emphasizing their post-9/11 lethal weaponization and strategic use, the chapter highlights their evolutionary roots, particularly in the Cold War era. Notably, during this period, drones’ evolution illuminated the potential of airpower and proliferation in shaping US strategic goals. Drones emerged as pivotal in aiding ground troops, facilitating guided-missile launches through reconnaissance, and impacting combat missions. They also proved strategic in enhancing force capabilities, precise targeting, and remote aerial assaults.

This chapter scrutinizes drones’ role in US grand strategy during the Bush administration post-9/11. It dissects the administration's foreign policy stance, drone utilization, and their impact on US grand strategy. It argues that drones’ usage triggered a grand strategy shift, moving from defence realism to offensive liberalism. The chapter evaluates preventive and preemptive drone strikes in states like Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Yemen. It asserts these actions countered Bush's strategy, resulting in unintended casualties, increased anti-Americanism, insurgent retaliation, and extremist recruitment. Despite limited proliferation, armed drones’ deployment under Bush set the stage for their broader adoption, showcasing their counterterrorism effectiveness.

This chapter critically examines drones’ role in the Obama administration's grand strategy. It argues that heightened drone usage for targeted killings reflected a dual-edged approach aligning with the administration's hybrid strategy. This strategy aimed at showcasing America's global engagement, yet also exhibited military assertiveness. While drones proved advantageous for counterterrorism, their signature strikes generated a security paradox and a “dronification” effect. This paradox emerged as drones provided security benefits by lowering costs and risks but led to adverse outcomes in targeted states, including anti-American sentiments, retaliations, and suicide attacks. This paradox highlights drones’ efficacy alongside overreliance under Obama, negatively impacting US counterterrorism against both rivals and non-state actors.

This chapter delves into the role of drones within Donald Trump's administration's grand strategy. It argues that outsourcing, deregulation, and increased drone use in targeted states aligned with his counterterrorism approach. These strategic objectives aligned with the doctrine of his administration, which promoted a “nativist, protectionist, and nationalist-isolationist vision for the US under the populist slogan ‘America First,'” challenging the post-Cold War consensus on liberal hegemony. Despite effective terrorist threat neutralization, escalated drone utilization led to negative outcomes for Trump's grand strategy, including civilian casualties, growing anti-US sentiment, and retaliatory attacks in targeted states.

This chapter delves into the complex dilemma of drones, focusing on targeted states. Building upon previous chapters’ analyses of drone impact under successive US administrations post-9/11, it investigates drone strike consequences in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The four main impacts—blowback effect, civilian casualties, terrorist retaliation/violence, and the counterterrorism paradox—are examined to discern how drone operations impact or impede US strategic objectives. Afghanistan and Pakistan are chosen due to their extensive history of post-9/11 drone strikes, and available data for impact assessment. While other case studies exist, this chapter centres on Afghanistan and Pakistan for their robust datasets.

This chapter examines the proliferation of drones in the context of US grand strategy. The negative precedent set by US drone use has prompted other states to adopt similar technologies, creating security dilemmas and challenges for US strategic objectives. While not delving into arms trade debates, this chapter focuses on the essential issue of proliferation. It sheds light on how drones undermine US goals and reveals risks associated with their widespread diffusion. The argument centres on the post-9/11 proliferation of drones among state and non-state actors, countering US grand strategy both nationally and globally. The chapter makes two interrelated arguments. Globally, unchecked drone diffusion may reshape power dynamics and intensify great power competition, potentially hindering US objectives. Nationally, the unchecked race to acquire drones potentially exacerbates security dilemmas, increasing uncertainties and vulnerabilities for US national security in the long term.

This chapter serves as a retrospective summary and analysis of the key arguments presented in this book, shedding light on the intricacies of US drone utilization and its implications for grand strategic objectives. It revisits the central themes and paradoxes surrounding the incorporation of drones into US grand strategy. Future US grand strategy, as illuminated in this chapter, should grapple with these challenges by establishing clear rules of engagement, fostering multilateral cooperation, and meticulously considering the long-term consequences of drone warfare. Achieving equilibrium between the application of drones and their unintended consequences, such as anti-American sentiments and proliferation risks, warrant a comprehensive re-evaluation of their use and strategic implications. Addressing these issues is crucial for the US to navigate the security dilemma and maintain its position in the international realm. To this end, changes are necessary in US grand strategy to ensure global security is not further destabilized particularly as new technologies like AI become integrated into warfare.