Drought and migration: an analysis of the effects of drought on temporary labor and return migration from a migrant-sending area in Nepal

Although the relationship between drought – a dimension of climate change – and migration has been explored in a number of settings, prior research has largely focused on out-migration and has not considered climate factors at the migrant destination. However, drought may impact not only out-migration but also return migration, particularly in settings where temporary labor migration and agricultural reliance are common. Thus, considering drought conditions at origins and destinations is necessary to specify the effects of climate on migrant-sending populations. Using detailed data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study, a household panel study in a migrant-sending area in Nepal, we analyze the effect of drought at the neighborhood level on individual-level out-migration and drought at the origin district on return migration among adults from 2011 to 2017, assessing these associations among males and females separately. In mixed-effect discrete-time regressions, we find that neighborhood drought is positively associated with out-migration and return migration, both internally and internationally among males. Among females, drought is positively associated with internal out-migration and return migration, but not international migrations. We did not find an association between drought at the origin and return migration independent of drought status at the destination. Taken together, these findings contribute to our understanding of the complexity of the impacts of precipitation anomalies on population movement over time.