Skip to main content
Top

2024 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

12. Drought Assessment in Potwar Region, Punjab Pakistan During 1981–2019

Authors : Saira Batool, Syed Amer Mahmood, Safdar Ali Shirazi

Published in: The Water, Climate, and Food Nexus

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

A severe natural disaster, drought affects the economy, the ecology, and many other areas on a global scale. For the Potwar region (PR) in Punjab, Pakistan, drought indicators (DIs), including deciles, the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), were computed using the DrinC programme. Drought conditions were predicted for the next 12, 9, and 3 months. Eight of the last 39 years have seen a severe drought, according to DIs created using the deciles technique, and such cycles repeat every 2–7 years. Similar trends were visible as deciles in both the RDI and SPI indices. However, for RDI and SPI, the extremely dry and severely dry classes only persisted for two years, whereas the years that affected the other deciles were typically and moderately dry. Deciles are less useful for assessing the severity of the drought than SPI. Based on a regression study that shows a connection between the RDI and SPI indices, the yearly RDI may be predicted if the first three months of precipitation are known. This research can help future development strategies tackle sensitive drought occurrences, their mitigation, and their socioeconomic repercussions.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
go back to reference Adnan S, Khan AH (2009) Effective rainfall for irrigated agriculture plains of Pakistan. Pak J Meteorol 6(11):61–72 Adnan S, Khan AH (2009) Effective rainfall for irrigated agriculture plains of Pakistan. Pak J Meteorol 6(11):61–72
go back to reference Adnan S, Ullah K, Gao S (2015) Characterization of drought and its assessment over Sindh, Pakistan during 1951–2010. J Meteorol Res 29:837–857CrossRef Adnan S, Ullah K, Gao S (2015) Characterization of drought and its assessment over Sindh, Pakistan during 1951–2010. J Meteorol Res 29:837–857CrossRef
go back to reference Adnan S, Ullah K, Shouting G (2016) Investigations into precipitation and drought climatologies in South Central Asia with special focus on Pakistan over the period 1951–2010. J Clim 29:6019–6035CrossRef Adnan S, Ullah K, Shouting G (2016) Investigations into precipitation and drought climatologies in South Central Asia with special focus on Pakistan over the period 1951–2010. J Clim 29:6019–6035CrossRef
go back to reference Adnan S, Ullah K, Gao S, Khosa AH, Wang Z (2017) Shifting of agro-climatic zones, their drought vulnerability, and precipitation and temperature trends in Pakistan. Int J Climatol 37:529–543CrossRef Adnan S, Ullah K, Gao S, Khosa AH, Wang Z (2017) Shifting of agro-climatic zones, their drought vulnerability, and precipitation and temperature trends in Pakistan. Int J Climatol 37:529–543CrossRef
go back to reference Adnan S, Ullah K, Shuanglin L, Gao S, Khan AH, Mahmood R (2018) Comparison of various drought indices to monitor drought status in Pakistan. Clim Dyn 51:1885–1899CrossRef Adnan S, Ullah K, Shuanglin L, Gao S, Khan AH, Mahmood R (2018) Comparison of various drought indices to monitor drought status in Pakistan. Clim Dyn 51:1885–1899CrossRef
go back to reference Ahmed K, Shahid S, Bin Harun S, Wang XJ (2016) Characterization of seasonal droughts in Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30:747–762CrossRef Ahmed K, Shahid S, Bin Harun S, Wang XJ (2016) Characterization of seasonal droughts in Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30:747–762CrossRef
go back to reference Ahmed K, Shahid S, Chung ES, Wang XJ, Harun SB (2019) Climate change uncertainties in seasonal drought severity-area-frequency curves: Case of arid region of Pakistan. J Hydrol 570:473–485CrossRef Ahmed K, Shahid S, Chung ES, Wang XJ, Harun SB (2019) Climate change uncertainties in seasonal drought severity-area-frequency curves: Case of arid region of Pakistan. J Hydrol 570:473–485CrossRef
go back to reference Anjum S, Saleem M, Cheema M, Bilal M, Khaliq T (2012) An assessment to vulnerability, extent, characteristics and severity of drought hazard in Pakistan. Pak J Sci 64:138–143 Anjum S, Saleem M, Cheema M, Bilal M, Khaliq T (2012) An assessment to vulnerability, extent, characteristics and severity of drought hazard in Pakistan. Pak J Sci 64:138–143
go back to reference Bae S, Lee SH, Yoo SH, Kim T (2018) Analysis of drought intensity and trends using the modified SPEI in South Korea from 1981 to 2010. Water 10(3):327CrossRef Bae S, Lee SH, Yoo SH, Kim T (2018) Analysis of drought intensity and trends using the modified SPEI in South Korea from 1981 to 2010. Water 10(3):327CrossRef
go back to reference Batool S, Shirazi SA, Mahmood SA (2021) Appraisal of soil erosion through RUSLE model and hypsometry in Chakwal Watershed (Potwar-Pakistan). Sarhad J Agric 37(2):594–606 Batool S, Shirazi SA, Mahmood SA (2021) Appraisal of soil erosion through RUSLE model and hypsometry in Chakwal Watershed (Potwar-Pakistan). Sarhad J Agric 37(2):594–606
go back to reference Dai AG (2011) Characteristics and trends in various forms of the palmer drought severity index during 1900–2008. J Geophys Res 116:1–26 Dai AG (2011) Characteristics and trends in various forms of the palmer drought severity index during 1900–2008. J Geophys Res 116:1–26
go back to reference Deo RC, Byun HR, Adamowski JF, Begum K (2017) Application of effective drought index for quantification of meteorological drought events: a case study in Australia. Theoret Appl Climatol 128(1):359–379CrossRef Deo RC, Byun HR, Adamowski JF, Begum K (2017) Application of effective drought index for quantification of meteorological drought events: a case study in Australia. Theoret Appl Climatol 128(1):359–379CrossRef
go back to reference Haroon MA, Zhang J, Yao F (2016) Drought monitoring and performance evaluation of MODIS-based drought severity index (DSI) over Pakistan. Nat Hazards 84:1349–1366CrossRef Haroon MA, Zhang J, Yao F (2016) Drought monitoring and performance evaluation of MODIS-based drought severity index (DSI) over Pakistan. Nat Hazards 84:1349–1366CrossRef
go back to reference Hina S, Saleem F (2019) Historical analysis (1981–2017) of drought severity and magnitude over a predominantly arid region of Pakistan. Clim Res 78:189–204CrossRef Hina S, Saleem F (2019) Historical analysis (1981–2017) of drought severity and magnitude over a predominantly arid region of Pakistan. Clim Res 78:189–204CrossRef
go back to reference Iqbal MF, Athar H (2018) Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan. Theoret Appl Climatol 134(1):613–632CrossRef Iqbal MF, Athar H (2018) Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan. Theoret Appl Climatol 134(1):613–632CrossRef
go back to reference Jamro S, Dars GH, Ansari K, Krakauer NY (2019) Spatio-temporal variability of drought in Pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Appl Sci 9:4588CrossRef Jamro S, Dars GH, Ansari K, Krakauer NY (2019) Spatio-temporal variability of drought in Pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Appl Sci 9:4588CrossRef
go back to reference Jasim AI, Awchi TA (2020) Regional meteorological drought assessment in Iraq. Arab J Geosci 13(7):1–16CrossRef Jasim AI, Awchi TA (2020) Regional meteorological drought assessment in Iraq. Arab J Geosci 13(7):1–16CrossRef
go back to reference Khan MA, Gadiwala MS (2013) A Study of drought over Sindh (Pakistan) using standardized precipitation index (SPI) 1951 to 2010. Pak J Meteorol 9:15–22 Khan MA, Gadiwala MS (2013) A Study of drought over Sindh (Pakistan) using standardized precipitation index (SPI) 1951 to 2010. Pak J Meteorol 9:15–22
go back to reference Krakauer NY, Lakhankar T, Dars GH (2019) Precipitation trends over the Indus basin. Climate 7(10):116CrossRef Krakauer NY, Lakhankar T, Dars GH (2019) Precipitation trends over the Indus basin. Climate 7(10):116CrossRef
go back to reference Latif M, Syed FS, Hannachi A (2017) Rainfall trends in the South Asian summer monsoon and its related large-scale dynamics with focus over Pakistan. Clim Dyn 48(11):3565–3581CrossRef Latif M, Syed FS, Hannachi A (2017) Rainfall trends in the South Asian summer monsoon and its related large-scale dynamics with focus over Pakistan. Clim Dyn 48(11):3565–3581CrossRef
go back to reference Mahessar AA, Qureshi AL, Siming IA, Kori SM, Dars GH, Channa M, Laghari AN (2019) Flash flood climatology in the lower region of Southern Sindh. Eng Technol Appl Sci Res 9:4474–4479CrossRef Mahessar AA, Qureshi AL, Siming IA, Kori SM, Dars GH, Channa M, Laghari AN (2019) Flash flood climatology in the lower region of Southern Sindh. Eng Technol Appl Sci Res 9:4474–4479CrossRef
go back to reference McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology American Meteorological Society, Boston, 179 (184) McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology American Meteorological Society, Boston, 179 (184)
go back to reference Mishra AM, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216CrossRef Mishra AM, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216CrossRef
go back to reference Moghbeli A, Delbari M (2020) Application of a standardized precipitation index for mapping drought severity in an arid climate region, southeastern Iran. Arabian J Geosci 13:1–16 Moghbeli A, Delbari M (2020) Application of a standardized precipitation index for mapping drought severity in an arid climate region, southeastern Iran. Arabian J Geosci 13:1–16
go back to reference Mohammad RK, Majid V, Amin A (2014) Drought monitoring using a soil wetness deficit index (SWDI) derived from MODIS satellite data. Agr Water Manage 132:37–45CrossRef Mohammad RK, Majid V, Amin A (2014) Drought monitoring using a soil wetness deficit index (SWDI) derived from MODIS satellite data. Agr Water Manage 132:37–45CrossRef
go back to reference Qaisrani ZN, Nuthammachot N, Techato K (2021) Drought monitoring based on standardized precipitation index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in the arid zone of Balochistan province, Pakistan. Arab J Geosci 14(11):1–13 Qaisrani ZN, Nuthammachot N, Techato K (2021) Drought monitoring based on standardized precipitation index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in the arid zone of Balochistan province, Pakistan. Arab J Geosci 14(11):1–13
go back to reference Samo SR, Bhatti N, Saand A, Keerio MA, Bangwar DK (2017) Temporal analysis of temperature and precipitation trends in Shaheed Benazir Abad Sindh, Pakistan. Eng Technol Appl Sci Res 7(6):2171–2176CrossRef Samo SR, Bhatti N, Saand A, Keerio MA, Bangwar DK (2017) Temporal analysis of temperature and precipitation trends in Shaheed Benazir Abad Sindh, Pakistan. Eng Technol Appl Sci Res 7(6):2171–2176CrossRef
go back to reference Spinoni J, Naumann G, Carrao H, Barbosa P, Vogt J (2014) World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010. Int J Climatol 34(8):2792–2804CrossRef Spinoni J, Naumann G, Carrao H, Barbosa P, Vogt J (2014) World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010. Int J Climatol 34(8):2792–2804CrossRef
go back to reference Spinoni J, Vogt JV, Naumann G, Barbosa P, Dosio A (2018) Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe? Int J Climatol 38(4):1718–1736CrossRef Spinoni J, Vogt JV, Naumann G, Barbosa P, Dosio A (2018) Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe? Int J Climatol 38(4):1718–1736CrossRef
go back to reference Surendran U, Ramasubramoniam S, Raja P, Kumar V, Murugappan V (2016) Budgeting of major nutrients and the mitigation options for nutrient mining in semi-arid tropical agro ecosystem of Tamil Nadu, India using NUTMON model. Environ Monit Assess 188(4):1–17CrossRef Surendran U, Ramasubramoniam S, Raja P, Kumar V, Murugappan V (2016) Budgeting of major nutrients and the mitigation options for nutrient mining in semi-arid tropical agro ecosystem of Tamil Nadu, India using NUTMON model. Environ Monit Assess 188(4):1–17CrossRef
go back to reference Surendran U, Sushanth CM, Joseph GM, E.J. (2014) Modeling the impacts of increase in temperature on irrigation water requirements in Palakkad district—a case study in humid tropical Kerala. J Water Clim Change 5(3):471–487CrossRef Surendran U, Sushanth CM, Joseph GM, E.J. (2014) Modeling the impacts of increase in temperature on irrigation water requirements in Palakkad district—a case study in humid tropical Kerala. J Water Clim Change 5(3):471–487CrossRef
go back to reference Surendran U, Sushanth CM, Joseph GM, E.J. (2017) FAO-CROPWAT model-based estimation of crop water need and appraisal of water resources for sustainable water resource management: pilot study for Kollam district—humid tropical region of Kerala, India. Curr Sci 112:76–86CrossRef Surendran U, Sushanth CM, Joseph GM, E.J. (2017) FAO-CROPWAT model-based estimation of crop water need and appraisal of water resources for sustainable water resource management: pilot study for Kollam district—humid tropical region of Kerala, India. Curr Sci 112:76–86CrossRef
go back to reference Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2014) DrinC: a software for drought analysis based on drought indices. Ear Sci Inf 1–13 Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2014) DrinC: a software for drought analysis based on drought indices. Ear Sci Inf 1–13
go back to reference Tsakiris G, Nalbantis I, Vangelis H, Verbeiren B, Huysmans M, Tychon B, Jacquemin I, Canters F, Vanderhaegen S, Engelen G, Poelmans L, De Becker P, Batelaan O (2013) A system-based paradigm of drought analysis for operational management. Water Resour Manag 27:5281–5297CrossRef Tsakiris G, Nalbantis I, Vangelis H, Verbeiren B, Huysmans M, Tychon B, Jacquemin I, Canters F, Vanderhaegen S, Engelen G, Poelmans L, De Becker P, Batelaan O (2013) A system-based paradigm of drought analysis for operational management. Water Resour Manag 27:5281–5297CrossRef
go back to reference Vangelis H, Tigkas D, Tsakiris G (2013) The effect of PET method on reconnaissance drought index (RDI) calculation. J Arid Environ 88:130–140CrossRef Vangelis H, Tigkas D, Tsakiris G (2013) The effect of PET method on reconnaissance drought index (RDI) calculation. J Arid Environ 88:130–140CrossRef
go back to reference Vasiliades L, Loukas A, Liberis N (2011) A water balance derived drought index for Pinios river basin, Greece. Water Resour Manag 25:1087–1101CrossRef Vasiliades L, Loukas A, Liberis N (2011) A water balance derived drought index for Pinios river basin, Greece. Water Resour Manag 25:1087–1101CrossRef
go back to reference Xie H, Ringler C, Zhu T, Waqas AD (2013) A spatiotemporal variability analysis using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Water Int 38:620–631CrossRef Xie H, Ringler C, Zhu T, Waqas AD (2013) A spatiotemporal variability analysis using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Water Int 38:620–631CrossRef
go back to reference Zhang Z, Chen X, Xu CY, Hong Y, Hardy J, Sun Z (2015) Examining the influence of river–lake interaction on the drought and water resources in the Poyang Lake basin. J Hydrol 522:510–521CrossRef Zhang Z, Chen X, Xu CY, Hong Y, Hardy J, Sun Z (2015) Examining the influence of river–lake interaction on the drought and water resources in the Poyang Lake basin. J Hydrol 522:510–521CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Drought Assessment in Potwar Region, Punjab Pakistan During 1981–2019
Authors
Saira Batool
Syed Amer Mahmood
Safdar Ali Shirazi
Copyright Year
2024
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-50962-9_12