Introduction
Background literature
Study 1: Substitution effects of the e-bike
Methods
Model conceptualisation
Data
Pattern | # | % | Pattern | # | % | Pattern | # | % | Pattern | # | % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
000001 | 1100 | 9.0 | 010001 | 25 | 0.2 | 100001 | 12 | 0.1 | 110010 | 5 | 0.0 |
000010 | 615 | 5.0 | 010010 | 4 | 0.0 | 100011 | 5 | 0.0 | 110011 | 18 | 0.1 |
000011 | 1813 | 14.8 | 010011 | 9 | 0.1 | 100100 | 22 | 0.2 | 110100 | 84 | 0.7 |
000100 | 394 | 3.2 | 010100 | 153 | 1.3 | 100101 | 10 | 0.1 | 110101 | 18 | 0.1 |
000101 | 154 | 1.3 | 010101 | 29 | 0.2 | 100110 | 3 | 0.0 | 110110 | 30 | 0.2 |
000110 | 164 | 1.3 | 010110 | 15 | 0.1 | 100111 | 8 | 0.1 | 110111 | 102 | 0.8 |
000111 | 643 | 5.3 | 010111 | 79 | 0.6 | 101000 | 156 | 1.3 | 111000 | 355 | 2.9 |
001000 | 142 | 1.2 | 011000 | 453 | 3.7 | 101001 | 6 | 0.0 | 111001 | 23 | 0.2 |
001001 | 12 | 0.1 | 011001 | 37 | 0.3 | 101010 | 5 | 0.0 | 111010 | 39 | 0.3 |
001010 | 1 | 0.0 | 011010 | 32 | 0.3 | 101011 | 9 | 0.1 | 111011 | 115 | 0.9 |
001011 | 10 | 0.1 | 011011 | 73 | 0.6 | 101100 | 40 | 0.3 | 111100 | 149 | 1.2 |
001100 | 63 | 0.5 | 011100 | 195 | 1.6 | 101101 | 25 | 0.2 | 111101 | 125 | 1.0 |
001101 | 27 | 0.2 | 011101 | 170 | 1.4 | 101110 | 17 | 0.1 | 111110 | 115 | 0.9 |
001110 | 13 | 0.1 | 011110 | 79 | 0.6 | 101111 | 77 | 0.6 | 111111 | 858 | 7.0 |
001111 | 55 | 0.5 | 011111 | 443 | 3.6 | 110000 | 492 | 4.0 | |||
010000 | 1217 | 10.0 | 100000 | 1063 | 8.7 | 110001 | 10 | 0.1 | Total | 12,215 | 100.0 |
Variable | ||
---|---|---|
Car (as driver) trip rate (over 3 days) | Mean (SD) | 3.00 (3.91) |
Train trip rate (over 3 days) | Mean (SD) | 0.26 (0.92) |
BTM trip rate (over 3 days) | Mean (SD) | 0.20 (0.80) |
Bicycle trip rate (over 3 days) | Mean (SD) | 1.88 (3.10) |
E-bike trip rate (over 3 days) | Mean (SD) | 0.40 (1.57) |
Walking trip rate (over 3 days) | Mean (SD) | 1.24 (2.39) |
Gender | Male | 46% |
Female | 54% | |
Age | Mean (SD) | 44.5 (19.0) |
Educational level | Low | 35% |
Mid | 37% | |
High | 28% | |
Occupational status | Employed | 54% |
Unemployed | 10% | |
Incapacitated | 5% | |
Student | 16% | |
Retired | 16% | |
Personal net income per month | No income | 26% |
Less than €1500 | 34% | |
€1500–€2500 | 29% | |
More than €2500 | 13% | |
Car ownership | 68% | |
Bicycle ownership | 70% | |
E-bike ownership | 17% |
Model estimation
Results
Substitution effects without distinction between trip purposes
Effect on | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Car as driver | Train | BTM | Bicycle | E-bike | Walk | |
Autoregression (first-order) | 0.199 (0.000) | 0.243 (0.000) | 0.196 (0.000) | 0.221 (0.000) | 0.344 (0.000) | 0.347 (0.000) |
Autoregression (second-order) | 0.115 (0.000) | 0.074 (0.000) | 0.013 (0.553) | 0.095 (0.000) | 0.200 (0.000) | 0.186 (0.000) |
Car as driver (t-1) | − 0.006 (0.051) | 0.000 (0.930) | − 0.083 (0.064) | − 0.007 (0.367) | 0.011 (0.211) | |
Train (t-1) | 0.020 (0.692) | − 0.000 (0.977) | − 0.023 (0.024) | 0.010 (0.684) | 0.035 (0.292) | |
BTM (t-1) | − 0.034 (0.565) | 0.002 (0.889) | − 0.097 (0.014) | 0.008 (0.146) | − 0.031 (0.430) | |
Bicycle (t-1) | − 0.035 (0.040) | − 0.001 (0.868) | − 0.000 (0.950) | − 0.000 (0.990) | − 0.010 (0.392) | |
E-bike (t-1) | − 0.012 (0.675) | − 0.000 (0.993) | 0.001 (0.922) | − 0.092 (0.000) | 0.011 (0.528) | |
Walk (t-1) | 0.046 (0.017) | 0.005 (0.267) | − 0.001 (0.822) | 0.001 (0.932) | − 0.000 (0.970) |
Substitution effects for commuting trips
Effect on | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Car as driver | Train | Bicycle | E-bike | Walk | |
Autoregression (first-order) | 0.269 (0.000) | 0.281 (0.000) | 0.208 (0.000) | 0.389 (0.000) | 0.481 (0.000) |
Autoregression (second-order) | 0.060 (0.024) | 0.053 (0.036) | 0.034 (0.125) | 0.263 (0.000) | 0.205 (0.000) |
Car as driver (t-1) | − 0.020 (0.003) | − 0.016 (0.171) | − 0.007 (0.398) | − 0.004 (0.479) | |
Train (t-1) | − 0.068 (0.148) | − 0.028 (0.347) | − 0.005 (0.333) | 0.004 (0.764) | |
Bicycle (t-1) | − 0.006 (0.835) | − 0.018 (0.067) | − 0.019 (0.197) | 0.017 (0.045) | |
E-bike (t-1) | − 0.102 (0.017) | − 0.005 (0.760) | − 0.056 (0.047) | 0.003 (0.797) | |
Walk (t-1) | − 0.083 (0.146) | 0.045 (0.030) | − 0.012 (0.742) | 0.010 (0.508) |
Substitution effects for leisure trips
Effect on | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Car as driver | Train | BTM | Bicycle | E-bike | Walk | |
Autoregression (first-order) | 0.059 (0.001) | 0.009 (0.566) | 0.052 (0.002) | 0.089 (0.000) | 0.313 (0.000) | 0.329 (0.000) |
Autoregression (second-order) | 0.025 (0.182) | − 0.045 (0.010) | − 0.018 (0.308) | 0.061 (0.000) | 0.176 (0.000) | 0.157 (0.000) |
Car as driver (t-1) | − 0.005 (0.039) | 0.004 (0.134) | − 0.122 (0.007) | 0.011 (0.101) | 0.022 (0.058) | |
Train (t-1) | 0.018 (0.724) | 0.011 (0.281) | 0.014 (0.138) | − 0.026 (0.255) | 0.008 (0.871) | |
BTM (t-1) | 0.125 (0.024) | 0.006 (0.587) | − 0.004 (0.925) | 0.011 (0.033) | − 0.120 (0.025) | |
Bicycle (t-1) | 0.010 (0.520) | 0.001 (0.862) | − 0.006 (0.063) | 0.008 (0.706) | 0.000 (0.976) | |
E-bike (t-1) | 0.031 (0.232) | − 0.005 (0.403) | − 0.006 (0.256) | − 0.045 (0.033) | 0.038 (0.120) | |
Walk (t-1) | 0.037 (0.006) | 0.002 (0.596) | − 0.001 (0.585) | 0.006 (0.602) | 0.007 (0.161) |
Substitution effects for shopping trips
Effect on | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Car as driver | Train | BTM | Bicycle | E-bike | Walk | |
Autoregression (first-order) | 0.140 (0.000) | − 0.112 (0.000) | − 0.030 (0.062) | 0.118 (0.000) | 0.182 (0.000) | 0.181 (0.000) |
Autoregression (second-order) | 0.124 (0.000) | − 0.108 (0.000) | − 0.040 (0.018) | 0.068 (0.000) | 0.133 (0.000) | 0.107 (0.000) |
Car as driver (t-1) | 0.001 (0.480) | − 0.001 (0.734) | 0.020 (0.714) | − 0.013 (0.088) | − 0.003 (0.755) | |
Train (t-1) | − 0.051 (0.556) | 0.022 (0.160) | 0.015 (0.170) | 0.018 (0.590) | 0.282 (0.000) | |
BTM (t-1) | − 0.071 (0.254) | − 0.004 (0.528) | − 0.166 (0.027) | − 0.002 (0.784) | − 0.053 (0.282) | |
Bicycle (t-1) | 0.014 (0.297) | 0.001 (0.430) | 0.002 (0.361) | 0.039 (0.405) | − 0.015 (0.151) | |
E-bike (t-1) | − 0.035 (0.120) | 0.001 (0.822) | 0.004 (0.335) | − 0.075 (0.000) | 0.002 (0.891) | |
Walk (t-1) | 0.005 (0.754) | 0.003 (0.047) | − 0.004 (0.119) | − 0.012 (0.380) | − 0.021 (0.010) |
Conclusion substitution effects
Study 2: E-bike user groups
Methods
Model conceptualisation
Data
Model estimation
Results
E-bike user groups
Classa | RO | MF | OF | YF | ST | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indicators | Class size (%) | 53 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 1 | – |
Gender (%) (Wald = 618, p < 0.00) | Male | 44 | 65 | 7 | 2 | 46 | 38 |
Female | 56 | 35 | 93 | 98 | 54 | 62 | |
Age (Wald = 440, p < 0.00) | 12–21 years | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 1 |
21–30 years | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
31–40 years | 0 | 8 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 4 | |
41–50 years | 0 | 25 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 9 | |
51–64 years | 4 | 65 | 98 | 40 | 0 | 34 | |
65 and older | 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51 | |
Mean | 72.3 | 52.6 | 58.8 | 46.3 | 16.2 | 62.7 | |
Educational level (%) (Wald = 1447, p < 0.00) | Low | 54 | 25 | 47 | 21 | 77 | 44 |
Mid | 26 | 39 | 36 | 48 | 20 | 32 | |
High | 17 | 34 | 15 | 30 | 2 | 22 | |
Unknown | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Occupational status (%) (Wald = 2465, p < 0.00) | Works 12–30 h/week | 1 | 4 | 38 | 57 | 3 | 13 |
Works 30+ h/week | 1 | 78 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 18 | |
Works in household | 0 | 1 | 35 | 20 | 0 | 7 | |
Student | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 2 | |
Unemployed | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
Incapacitated | 0 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 4 | |
Retired | 98 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 53 | |
Other | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
Household composition (%) (Wald = 2754, p < 0.00) | Single | 24 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
Couple without children | 73 | 44 | 82 | 9 | 0 | 60 | |
Couple with children | 2 | 35 | 7 | 79 | 82 | 19 | |
Other | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 3 | |
Active covariates | |||||||
Reporting year (%) | 2013 | 18 | 13 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
2014 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 20 | |
2015 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 19 | |
2016 | 20 | 23 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 21 | |
2017 | 24 | 25 | 22 | 29 | 30 | 25 | |
Inactive covariates | |||||||
E-bike trip on reporting dayb (%) | Work | 1 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 5 |
School | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | |
Shopping | 11 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 11 | |
Leisure | 15 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 13 |
Trends in e-bike user groups
Share | Group 1 | Group 2 | Group 3 | Group 4 | Group 5 | Total (× 1000) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 56.1% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 1170 |
2014 | 53.8% | 19.8% | 14.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | 1369 |
2015 | 49.5% | 22.9% | 15.4% | 10.7% | 1.5% | 1630 |
2016 | 49.8% | 24.5% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.7% | 1832 |
2017 | 48.6% | 23.6% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 1.9% | 2033 |
Absolute size (× 1000) | Group 1 | Group 2 | Group 3 | Group 4 | Group 5 | |
2013 | 657 | 209 | 180 | 108 | 16 | 1170 |
2014 | 737 | 272 | 199 | 144 | 18 | 1369 |
2015 | 807 | 374 | 250 | 175 | 24 | 1630 |
2016 | 912 | 449 | 230 | 209 | 32 | 1832 |
2017 | 988 | 480 | 250 | 276 | 39 | 2033 |
Growth 2013–2017 | Group 1 | Group 2 | Group 3 | Group 4 | Group 5 | Total |
Growth (%) | 50% | 129% | 39% | 156% | 150% | 74% |