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The Impact of Corporate Income Taxation on Location Choice of Investments: Separate Accounting Versus Formula Apportionment Read chapter Read first chapter

2018 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Economic Voting in the 2006 Czech General Election

Author : Ivana Tomankova

Published in: The Impact of Globalization on International Finance and Accounting

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This paper investigates the occurrence and patterns of economic voting in the 2006 election for the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic. I construct multinomial logit models which specify the log odds of electoral support for a given political party as function of the regional economic conditions faced by the voter, controlling for political and socioeconomic factors, and estimate these with opinion-survey data. The results provide evidence of unemployment-based economic voting: other things equal, a 1 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate in the voter’s region increases their probability of voting for the leading incumbent socialist party on average by 0.8 percentage points and decreases their probability of voting for the Green party by 0.5 percentage points. Interestingly, these effects are driven by affluent voters. I conclude that the observed pattern of economic voting is most accurately described by the luxury goods voting model and, to some extent, the clientele hypothesis.

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previous chapter Spatial Concentration of Local Government Expenditure in the Czech Republic
next chapter Social Expenditures and Poverty in Central and Eastern European Union Countries: A Causality Analysis
Footnotes
1
Models of economic voting may be based on objective economic indicators or subjective perceptions. The former have the advantage of being exogenous and the latter of affecting government popularity without any lags (Kayser and Grafström 2016).
 
2
Inflation, too, is commonly found as an explanatory variable in models of economic voting. Unfortunately, regional inflation indicators are unavailable.
 
3
The reader may find a description of the multinomial logit in Stata (2015). Its application to vote choices in a multiparty political system is provided by Doyle and Fidrmuc (2003).
 
4
Standard errors are heteroscedasticity consistent. Diagnostic tests show that the effects of goveval, left, right, and age are statistically significant at 1 percentage in determining vote choice among different political parties, while the effects of U and livstd are significant at 5 percentage. The remaining variables (GDP, educ2/educ3, econact, married, and sex) are insignificant at conventional levels. A Wald test for combining alternatives indicates that the outcomes (political parties) are distinguishable and should not be combined, while tests for the independence of irrelevant alternatives produce mixed results. The model McFadden R2 is 0.381.
 
5
Paldam and Nannestad (2000) find that unemployment is the one macroeconomic quantity voters are best informed about.
 
Literature
Doyle O, Fidrmuc J (2003) Anatomy of voting behaviour and attitudes during post-communist transition Czech Republic 1990–98. Disc. Pap. 3801, Centre for Economic Policy Research
Enkelmann S (2013) Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German micro data. Working Paper No 274, University of Lüneburg
Lewis-Beck MS, Paldam M (2000) Economic voting: an introduction. Elect Stud 19:113–121CrossRef
Nadeau R, Lewis-Beck MS, Bélanger É (2011) Economics and elections revisited. 6th European consortium for political research general conference University of Iceland, Reykjavik, 24–27th August 2011
Paldam M (2004) Are vote and popularity functions economically correct? In: Rawley CK, Schneider F (eds) The encyclopedia of public choice. Kluwer Academic Publishers, New York, pp 49–57
Sanders D (1999) The real economy and the perceived economy in popularity functions: How much do voters need to know? A study of British data, 1974–1997. WP No. 170, Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials
Stata (2015) Mlogit – multinomial (polytomous) logistic regression. Base Reference Manual
Metadata
Title
Economic Voting in the 2006 Czech General Election
Author
Ivana Tomankova
Copyright Year
2018
Book
The Impact of Globalization on International Finance and Accounting

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-68761-2

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-68762-9

Copyright Year: 2018

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68762-9_26