7. Electoral Campaigns in Japan’s 2024 HR Election: Emerging Signs of Transformation

The 2024 Japanese House of Representatives election was a pivotal moment in Japan's political landscape, marked by both continuity and transformation. The election was shaped by structural factors such as the prime minister's discretionary authority to determine election timing, the short, candidate-centered nature of campaigns, and the influence of an aging population. However, the election also underscored significant transformations in Japanese politics, including the gradual decline of the dankai generation, the increasing electoral weight of urban areas, and the growing importance of digital campaigning. The campaign highlighted strategic missteps by Ishiba, which compounded the governing coalition's losses. His rural-centric focus alienated younger and urban voters, while his mishandling of political money scandals damaged the coalition's image. Media reports on district-level campaigns revealed a sharp decline in the coalition's projected seat share, with daily updates presaging significant losses. The election represented a turning point, balancing entrenched structural constraints with emerging transformative forces, signaling a shifting political landscape influenced by demographic change, urbanization, and technological innovation.