Electoral Role Models: Political Empowerment and Candidate Emergence

Does the election of politicians from historically underrepresented groups spur others to enter politics? Some political scientists and policymakers posit that the election of women and people of color to prominent political offices can inspire others to run for office, yet prior research has yielded mixed results. We contribute to the literature on representation by exploring the impact of role models on candidate emergence at the local level, where aspiring politicians typically begin to climb the political ladder. Using data from Brazilian elections and a set of regression discontinuity designs, we find no evidence that the election of a woman or Afro-Brazilian mayor spurs women and Afro-Brazilians to run for city council positions. Our results, which are robust to several alternative specifications, suggest that even if the election of a woman or minority politician inspires others to enter politics, barriers may impede them from running for office.