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2020 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

15. Empirical Modelling of Man-made Disaster Scenarios

Author : Melanie Windirsch

Published in: Ecological, Societal, and Technological Risks and the Financial Sector

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This contribution discusses the empirical modelling of man-made disaster scenarios by modelling the frequency and severity (collective risk model) of man-made catastrophes based on historical industry loss data. Due to the various triggers that require separate modelling approaches, the contribution focuses on man-made fire/explosion disasters since recent events, such as the Tianjin harbor explosion, have shown the significance of this disaster type and its impact on the insurance industry and other markets. Ultimately, empirical modelling will be applied to develop an aggregate loss curve to reflect man-made fire/explosion disasters properly.

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Tianjin harbor explosion is one of the largest global insurance losses in the history of man-made disasters. Current estimates assume insurance losses around USD 3.5 billion. In 2015, a hazardous chemical explosion occurred at a warehouse storing dangerous and flammable materials in the Port of Tianjin. The explosion caused enormous economic and human losses for enterprises and society. The review and analysis of the causes and effects of the explosion has triggered a wider discussion about risk management and the impact of man-made disasters (Swiss Re 2016, p. 1).

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Title: Empirical Modelling of Man-made Disaster Scenarios
Author: Melanie Windirsch
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Ecological, Societal, and Technological Risks and the Financial Sector
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-38857-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-38858-4

Copyright Year: 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38858-4_15