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2025 | Book

Empirically Effective Government and Corporate Bond Pricing Models

Yield Curves and Default Curves

Authors: Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura

Publisher: Springer Nature Singapore

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About this book

This book presents a comprehensive, innovative, integrated, and empirically effective system for cross-sectionally analyzing prices of government bonds (GBs) and corporate bonds (CBs) to timely obtain practically useful information on yield curves and default curves. The system consists of (1) GB-pricing model that values coupon GB and gives yield curve, (2) credit risk rating model of each CB, and (3) CB-pricing model that gives default curve or equivalently term structure of default probabilities (TSDP), which prices credit default swap (CDS). And in view of data science, the empirical effectiveness of the modeling concept, formulated models with price correlations, and estimation procedures in the system is verified with monthly data through various applications of the models to practically important analyses on prices of Japanese GBs and CBs, the USA GBs and CBs, and European GBs (EUGBs) where GBs of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Greece. Fact, both yield curves and default curves over a future time horizon. The system enables us to get practically and timely predictive information for making decisions in investment, formation of effective bond portfolio, asset and liability management (ALM), and risk management of yield curve and default curve in banks, trust funds, pension funds, life insurance firms, among others.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. An Overview Over the Content of This Book
Abstract
This book aims to develop an innovative, comprehensive, integrated and empirically effective system for cross-sectionally analyzing price data of government bonds (GBs) and/or corporate bonds (CBs) with associated attribute data to timely obtain practically useful information on yield curves and default curves. The system is called K System in the sequel. And to verify the empirical effectiveness of the modeling concept, formulated models, and estimation procedures in the System from a viewpoint of data science, the models are applied to various practically important analyses on prices of Japanese GBs and CBs (JGBs and JCBs), USGBs and USCBs and European GBs (EUGBs) of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece. All the GBs and CBs treated in this book are fixed coupon bonds of maturities longer than one year since there exists no long-term discount bond (zero-coupon bond).
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Chapter 2. GB Models and Yield Curves in Traditional Finance, Mathematical Finance and K System
Abstract
And this book presents various empirical evidences for the effectiveness of the models with price data of JGBs, JCBs, USGBs, USCBs and EUGBs of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece.
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Chapter 3. Pricing Government Bonds and Yield Curves Via K Models
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Chapter 4. Empirical Effectiveness of the KGB Model as JGB and USGB Pricing Models
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Chapter 5. Empirical Effectiveness of K0-Yield Curve
Abstract
This Chapter is a continuation from Chap. 4, and K0-TSIR model or equivalently K0-YC model in the KGB model class [A] is developed as an empirically effective yield curve derived from coupon GB prices, where K0-YC stands for KGB0 yield curve.
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Chapter 6. KCB Model and Term Structure of Default Probabilities (TSDP)
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Chapter 7. Credit Risk Analyses on Japanese CBs and Default Curves
Abstract
Chapter 6 described the framework of model concept, models and empirical method for credit-risk analysis in the K System.
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Chapter 8. Credit Risk Analyses on CB Prices in the US Energy Sector
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Chapter 9. Credit Risk Analysis on Euro Government Bonds
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Chapter 10. Extended KCB Model, Credit Portfolio and CDS Pricing
Abstract
The dependency of the firm on main industrial sectors can be measured by a set of main-sector-wise sales ratios the previous Chapters, a CR-homogeneous.
Takeaki Kariya, Yoshiro Yamamura
Backmatter
Metadata
Title
Empirically Effective Government and Corporate Bond Pricing Models
Authors
Takeaki Kariya
Yoshiro Yamamura
Copyright Year
2025
Publisher
Springer Nature Singapore
Electronic ISBN
978-981-9611-04-1
Print ISBN
978-981-9611-03-4
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-1104-1