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2019 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

5. Energy Demand Forecasting

Author : Subhes C. Bhattacharyya

Published in: Energy Economics

Publisher: Springer London

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Abstract

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It covers both simple approaches based on indicators and more sophisticated approaches using econometric methods, end-use method and other techniques. The chapter builds on the materials presented in Chaps. 3 and 4 and explains how demand analysis tools are extended to make forecasts for the future.

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Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
The full database is available by contacting: indoorair@who.int.
 
2
See Reister (1990) for an example. We also discuss the POLES model in Sect. 4, which can also be considered a hybrid model.
 
3
See Ghanadan and Koomey (2005) for an example.
 
4
See Sun (2001). The results of the study show a significant divergence with actual EU15 demand.
 
5
See Munasinghe and Meier (1993), Labys and Asano (1990).
 
6
Al-Saba and El-Amin (1999) for an application.
 
7
This section and the section on hybrid method are based on Bhattacharyya and Timilsina (2009).
 
9
See Jefferson (2000) for a brief history of WEC efforts in energy scenario development. The latest study WEC (2016) has considered three exploratory scenarios—Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock—to initiate a dialogue on the Grand Transition.
 
10
The tool can be obtained by sending a request at communication@theshiftproject.org.
 
11
The model can found here: http://​streammodel.​org/​index.​html (last accessed on 2nd June, 2018).
 
13
The tool can be found here: http://​www.​iess2047.​gov.​in (last accessed on 2nd June, 2018).
 
14
See for example Special Issue of Energy Journal (November 2006) on this theme.
 
15
This section is based on Bhattacharyya and Timilsina (2009).
 
16
Armstrong (2001).
 
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Metadata
Title
Energy Demand Forecasting
Author
Subhes C. Bhattacharyya
Copyright Year
2019
Publisher
Springer London
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-7468-4_5

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