Energy Futures

Table of Contents

1. Frontmatter

2. Chapter 1. The Anomaly

   Daniel J. Soeder

   Abstract

   For the past 800,000 years, the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide varied from 180 parts per million (ppm) to 300 ppm. Continuous measurements made since 1957 showed levels climbing above 300 ppm and concentrations are now above 420 ppm, some 50% greater than pre-industrial levels. Nearly all scientists agree that this is an anomaly caused by humans using fossil energy. Fossil fuel combustion products have added significant amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, a “greenhouse gas” that traps heat radiated from the warm Earth, warming the atmosphere and causing climate change. The evidence is clear and compelling. No explanation other than human fossil fuel combustion fits the timing and the trend of the data. Nevertheless, so-called “climate skeptics,” who are largely connected to the fossil fuel industry, have introduced artificial uncertainty to bog down policy initiatives and stall climate legislation in endless debates. There is virtually no disagreement among the scientists who are independent from the fossil fuel industry. The anomaly is real, and getting worse. Climate change is undeniable. The uncertainty promoted by the fossil fuel industry is producing delays that will make the eventual solution more expensive and more technically challenging as the climate continues to deteriorate.

3. Chapter 2. The Energy Past

   Daniel J. Soeder

   Abstract

   Fossil fuels were latecomers to human history. Coal wasn’t widely adopted until the mid-1600s when England faced a wood shortage. Petroleum had been used for millennia as a tonic, medicine and cure-all, but was not burned for energy until it was developed as a lantern fuel in the mid-1800s to replace whale oil, which had become shockingly expensive. Natural gas was produced and used locally as a substitute for manufactured gas but did not see widespread use until interstate pipeline systems became available to transport it nationwide after World War II. The growing reliance on fossil fuel to power the manufacturing, electricity, and transportation sectors was largely a late nineteenth and twentieth century phenomenon. By the start of the twenty-first century, the economy of the United States and indeed the world had become dependent on fossil fuel.

4. Chapter 3. The Energy Present

   Daniel J. Soeder

   Abstract

   The U.S. dependence on fossil fuels became painfully apparent during the 1973–1974 oil embargo by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Even though the actual reduction in oil supply was only about 10%, the resulting social and economic disruption influenced U.S. foreign policy for at least the next 40 years. The development of shale gas and tight oil in the twenty-first century using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing was the direct result of the embargo. By 2019, the U.S. was producing more oil than Saudi Arabia, and more gas than Russia. The abundant natural gas from shale led many electric utilities to convert power plants from coal to natural gas. Coal use suffered as a result, with the coal companies claiming it was due to a USEPA “war on coal.” The truth is that gas is cheaper, much cleaner, and almost 50% more efficient at generating electricity. The vast majority of electricity in the United States is currently produced from fossil fuel combustion, and fossil fuel powers nearly all vehicles. Eliminating our dependence on fossil energy to combat climate change will be a massive and disruptive undertaking.

5. Chapter 4. The Politics of Climate Denial

   Daniel J. Soeder

   Abstract

   Nearly all scientists not associated with the fossil fuel industry agree that the greenhouse gas anomaly in the Earth’s atmosphere was caused by the human burning of fossil fuels, trapping heat, warming the atmosphere, and causing climate change. Despite the preponderance of evidence supporting this phenomenon, including physical principles that have been well-understood since the nineteenth century, the fossil energy industry has steadfastly denied the reality of anthropogenic climate change. By claiming that climate data are “controversial” or “unsettled,” the industry has injected a note of uncertainty into whether or not climate action should be taken. Combined with their substantial financial support of climate-denying politicians, no action has in fact been undertaken in the ensuing 40 years since the issue was first raised, and our society is now more dependent on fossil fuels than ever. The Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022 marks the first official attempt by the U.S. government to address climate change. The acceptance versus denial of climate change has evolved into a tribal issue that has become entrenched in blue versus red American politics.

6. Chapter 5. Greenhouse Gas and Climate Change

   Daniel J. Soeder

   Abstract

   The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas has reached the highest levels in over 800,000 years. Natural events in the distant geological past, which raised carbon dioxide to levels comparable to those in the atmosphere today resulted in substantial climate change, including the complete loss of the polar ice caps, significant sea level rise, and the extinction of many species. Since the 1980s, a series of distinguished scientists and educators have been raising alarms with the U.S. Congress and the public that the uncontrolled release of fossil fuel combustion products into the atmosphere will have detrimental effects on the climate. Most have been ignored. Nevertheless, primitive computer models from that time showed increasing climate instability, with deeper droughts, more severe storms, killer heat waves, disruption of ocean currents, rising seas, and a greater frequency of environmental disasters; exactly what we are experiencing today. The only thing the models got wrong was the timing. The events that are happening now were not supposed to occur until the latter half of the twenty-first century. Yet, here we are.

7. Chapter 6. Replacing Fossil Fuels

   Daniel J. Soeder

   Abstract

   To maintain a technological civilization, humanity requires energy. We cannot, however, continue to obtain the majority of that energy by burning fossil fuels. There are carbon-neutral and sustainable substitutes available, including biofuels, hydrogen, wind, solar, new technology nuclear, and engineered geothermal. More exotic energy sources like nuclear fusion may be on the horizon, but the urgent need to replace fossil fuels as quickly as possible suggests that we have to use what we currently have available. Displacing fossil fuels with new energy sources will be disruptive and challenging, but it must be done. Government policies and leadership are necessary, because it has become obvious over the last few decades that the fossil fuel replacement will not be achieved by the “free market.” Fossil fuels should be replaced first in the electric power sector to completely decarbonize the electric grid. This should be followed by the decarbonization of the transportation sector. Many nations have pledged to become carbon neutral by the middle of the twenty-first century, but the sooner this can be achieved, the better.

8. Chapter 7. Decarbonizing Electricity

   Daniel J. Soeder

   Abstract

   The first step in replacing fossil fuels with carbon-neutral energy is to decarbonize electricity. Electric power does not create energy, but only transfers it. As such, replacing fossil fuels with carbon-neutral options as the primary power sources for electrical generation will be minimally disruptive to the economy and society. Electricity will flow as before, all appliances and devices will operate normally, and no one will know the difference except for those scientists measuring GHG levels in the atmosphere. If carbon-neutral or carbon-zero options are used to replace fossil fuels as the heat sources for thermoelectric power plants, existing electrical generating infrastructure can be retained, saving a substantial amount of both time and money. Options include biogas to replace natural gas and engineered geothermal or new nuclear technology to replace the heat from coal. The capital costs of engineered geothermal and new nuclear tech will be partly offset by lower operating expenses compared to coal or old style nuclear plants. Once the electric grid is fully decarbonized, it should be followed by decarbonization of the transportation sector and the industrial sector.

9. Chapter 8. Zero Carbon Vehicles

   Daniel J. Soeder

   Abstract

   Transportation accounts for about 30% of GHG emissions in the United States, and more than half of that comes from passenger vehicles. Decarbonizing transportation is as challenging as decarbonizing electricity, but in different ways. Essentially, vehicles from aircraft to automobiles that currently run on liquid fossil fuels will have to find another power source that doesn’t emit GHG. Unlike stationary electrical power plants, vehicles are mobile and thus require zero carbon power sources that are robust, light weight, portable, and quickly renewed or refilled. The current choices are electrically-powered vehicles that run on rechargeable batteries, and internal combustion engines that use liquid or gaseous biofuels with carbon-neutral emissions. Advanced vehicle options include hydrogen-powered chemical fuel cells as electrical power sources, and hydrogen is also being considered as a non-carbon fuel for internal combustion engines. Mass transportation can be decarbonized through initiatives like trains powered by net zero electricity and cities that reduce automobile use by being more pedestrian and bicycle-friendly. As with most things in life, none of these are perfect and they all have their advantages and disadvantages. Given the potential severity of the climate crisis, however, an “all of the above” strategy for decarbonizing vehicles is warranted.

10. Chapter 9. Mitigation by Geoengineering

    Daniel J. Soeder

    Abstract

    Geoengineering seeks to alter the Earth itself to respond to the climate crisis. Aerosols injected into the stratosphere by nature during volcanic eruptions can sometimes produce dramatic cooling effects, such as the “year without a summer” in 1816 following the eruption of Mt. Tambora in Indonesia. Solar radiation management seeks to add anthropogenic aerosols to the stratosphere to overcome the most severe effects of global warming such as massive heat waves. Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere can be done using photosynthetic plants or with engineered devices to capture it using various chemical processes and specialized machinery. Up to a trillion new trees would have to be planted to significantly mitigate climate change. Carbon dioxide captured by engineered devices must be stored or sequestered away from the atmosphere for periods of at least a century and the longer the better. All these options are under consideration by governments, research institutions, and venture capital investors. When combined with an energy switch away from fossil fuels, geoengineering techniques promise a way to mitigate the worst aspects of climate change.

11. Chapter 10. The Energy Future

    Daniel J. Soeder

    Abstract

    No one can accurately predict the future, but it is almost certain that a century from now we will be using some kind of energy other than fossil fuels. Whether that is high tech, sustainable nuclear and engineered geothermal to supplement wind and solar, or wood fires while the remaining humans hunker down in smoky caves is totally up to us. Many people, especially many young people, are in despair about the future. The climate crisis looks insurmountable, and they’ve given up hope. Meanwhile, other people sashay through life carrying on business as usual, never giving the climate a second thought, convinced that it’s not a problem, and even if it is, science can easily solve it. Both extremes are dangerous and delusional, and both have something in common: nothing gets done. In between is the realization that the crisis is real, but the situation is not yet dire, and there are ways climate can be fixed, even if it won’t be easy. This is the approach where things get done and it is the approach we need. Developed countries must replace fossil fuel with carbon neutral or zero carbon alternatives, and then adapt this technology for use in undeveloped countries. The undeveloped world is facing the worst consequences of climate change, even though their contribution of greenhouse gas is minimal. The developed world, which burned most of the fossil fuel that led to the current climate crisis in the first place owes it to the underdeveloped world to fix the climate and help them avoid making the same mistakes.

12. Chapter 11. Leaving the Cradle

    Daniel J. Soeder

    Abstract

    One of the main reasons for the climate crisis is that we’ve grown too big for our britches on Mother Earth. The amount of energy humans are using, the greenhouse gas from the fossil fuels we are burning, the materials being mined and manufactured, and the waste we are generating have all become too great for the planet to handle. It should be obvious that infinite growth cannot happen on a finite planet, yet our economics seem to ignore this. Humanity has two options if we want to survive as a civilization: either a planned reduction in resource extraction and use through a process known as “degrowth,” or expansion beyond the Earth into space. Degrowth is complex and difficult to implement without crashing economies and requires a major shift in the economic thinking that has driven human civilization over the last several centuries. Expansion into space is also difficult but presents technical challenges that have multiple ancillary benefits if solved. The Apollo moon landing program gave us major advances in electronics, miniaturization, computing, engineered materials, and flight control. Modern space efforts, many driven by private industry, are solving everyday problems of suborbital and orbital flight, landing re-usable boosters, developing new materials, and figuring out how to move fuel, supplies, and people around in space. Making humanity a multi-planetary species, inhabiting the moon and Mars and other parts of the solar system in the future spreads out industry and populations and reduces impacts on any one place. Manufacturing processes that are environmentally risky can be restricted to factories in orbit or on the moon, avoiding damage to ecosystems and the environment. Humanity has reached the limits of Earth. If we want to continue to grow and develop as a species, we have no other option except space.

13. Chapter 12. Summation

    Daniel J. Soeder

    Abstract

    As a takeaway for readers, I have attempted to summarize the highlights of the book in a series of bullet points below. This is intended to be a brief recap of the main concepts.

14. Backmatter