Enhanced Methods for Evaluating Water-inrush Risk from Underlying Aquifers: Incorporating Dynamic Weight Theory and Uncertainty Analysis Model

Accurately gauging the risk of water inrush from underlying aquifers is paramount for ensuring safety in coal mine production. This paper presents an Improved Vulnerability Index Model for water-inrush (IVIM), a risk evaluation system built upon eight factors influencing coal-floor water inrush events. Firstly, the Combined Weight Method (CWM) was utilized to establish static comprehensive weights. Then, the Dynamic Weight Theory (DWT) facilitated the construction of a zoning variable weight model to determine the dynamic weights of controlling factors. Finally, the Uncertainty Analysis Model (UAM) was employed to create a linear uncertainty measure function for determining risk levels. The model was applied to the Qipanjing Mine in Inner Mongolia and compared against the Traditional Vulnerability Index Model (TVIM). Results indicated higher inrush risks in the southern and western parts of the study area compared to the eastern and northern sections, with geological structural regions exhibiting significantly greater risks. Monitoring water pressure and detecting fracture structures represent critical priorities. Compared to TVIM, IVIM yielded a 28% proportion of relative danger and danger zones, surpassing the 19% identified by TVIM. The model’s effectiveness was validated utilizing the Fitting Rate of Water-inrush Points (FRWP), with IVIM achieving a 100% FRWP—significantly exceeding TVIM’s 66.67%. IVIM effectively addresses the issue of localized weight variation in the study area and risk area outline under uncertain working conditions, aspects overlooked by TVIM. This method demonstrates a significant advantage in assessing the risk of water inrush from aquifers.