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2018 | Book

Ensembles of Type 2 Fuzzy Neural Models and Their Optimization with Bio-Inspired Algorithms for Time Series Prediction

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About this book

This book focuses on the fields of hybrid intelligent systems based on fuzzy systems, neural networks, bio-inspired algorithms and time series. This book describes the construction of ensembles of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Networks models and the optimization of their fuzzy integrators with bio-inspired algorithms for time series prediction. Interval type-2 and type-1 fuzzy systems are used to integrate the outputs of the Ensemble of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Network models. Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization are the Bio-Inspired algorithms used for the optimization of the fuzzy response integrators. The Mackey-Glass, Mexican Stock Exchange, Dow Jones and NASDAQ time series are used to test of performance of the proposed method. Prediction errors are evaluated by the following metrics: Mean Absolute Error, Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Percentage Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The proposed prediction model outperforms state of the art methods in predicting the particular time series considered in this work.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Introduction
Abstract
Based on the evolution of a variable or a set of variables given in a time series, to predict future values of this variable we should seek the dynamic laws governing the real state of the system over time. This preliminary step is the prediction modeling process. In short, time series analysis aims at drawing conclusions about a complex system using past data.
Jesus Soto, Patricia Melin, Oscar Castillo
Chapter 2. State of the Art
Abstract
In this chapter, we describe the state of the art of the computational intelligence techniques, which we use as a basis for this work.
Jesus Soto, Patricia Melin, Oscar Castillo
Chapter 3. Problem Statement and Development
Abstract
The first goal of this book is the construction of the Ensembles of IT2FNN models and their optimization of the fuzzy integrators with GAs and PSO algorithms for time series prediction. The second goal is the design of interval type-2 and type-1 fuzzy systems to integrate the outputs (forecasts) of the IT2FNN models forming the Ensemble.
Jesus Soto, Patricia Melin, Oscar Castillo
Chapter 4. Simulation Studies
Abstract
In this section we present results obtained of the ensemble of IT2FNN models and the use of fuzzy integrators as response optimized with GA and PSO algorithms for time series prediction.
Jesus Soto, Patricia Melin, Oscar Castillo
Chapter 5. Conclusion
Abstract
Ensembles of IT2FNN models and the optimization of their fuzzy integrators using the GA and PSO algorithms for time series prediction, was proposed in this book.
Jesus Soto, Patricia Melin, Oscar Castillo
Backmatter
Metadata
Title
Ensembles of Type 2 Fuzzy Neural Models and Their Optimization with Bio-Inspired Algorithms for Time Series Prediction
Authors
Dr. Jesus Soto
Prof. Patricia Melin
Prof. Dr. Oscar Castillo
Copyright Year
2018
Electronic ISBN
978-3-319-71264-2
Print ISBN
978-3-319-71263-5
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71264-2

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