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Published in:
2005 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Epilogue
Authors : Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen, Bruno Tissot
Published in: Economic Forecasting
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan UK
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A British Chancellor of the Exchequer who suffered more than others from the major forecasting errors made under his watch decided to take revenge on the technicians and declared in his Budget statement:
Like long-term weather forecasts, they [economic forecasts] are better than nothing …. but their origin lies in the extrapolation from a partially known past, through an unknown present, to an unknowable future according to theories about the causal relationships between certain economic variables which are hotly disputed by academic economists and may in fact change from country to country or from decade to decade (Healy, 1990).