4. Europe: A Geographical Expression or Unity of Purpose?

In January 2020, as a new year dawned in Europe, a storm was gathering in the far East by the name of COVID-19. The pandemic’s profound and devastating impact across society is evident. The contagion is not only concentrated on the socio-economic level, it also affects politics, security and defense. Compounded with Brexit, the coronavirus crisis could spark unforeseen security challenges or crystallize pre-existing trends. This chapter fleshes out two opposite but equally plausible, scenarios for Europe’s collective security architecture. First, it explores the possibility of new momentum being injected into European defense cooperation; after all, EU members, the UK, Norway and Switzerland share the same concerns and largely agree on key security provisions: sustained mutual solidarity displayed during the pandemic, a geopolitical reshuffle, shrinking defense budgets, a deteriorating security environment in the near-abroad, and international rivalry in the technological domain providing the basis for ambitious UK and EU collaboration. Second, this chapter presents a drifting apart scenario that sees the “Special Relationship” between the US and UK reshuffling London’s priority list while the EU seeks enhanced strategic autonomy from NATO and the US. The reality of Brexit sees opposing priorities and competing projects rather than truly multilateral initiatives, fracturing the UK–EU security and defense relationship. Once the fog of the virus lifts, will Europe be met by a period of détente both to the East and the West, or will this public-health crisis only further exacerbate already present geopolitical challenges faced by Brussels?