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Published in:
2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Explaining the Election Outcome
Authors : Harold D. Clarke, Peter Kellner, Marianne C. Stewart, Joe Twyman, Paul Whiteley
Published in: Austerity and Political Choice in Britain
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan UK
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Chapter 6 analyses constituency-level competition among the parties across the country. Direct competition between Labour and the Conservatives was limited in 2015, making contests involving one of the two major parties and various minor parties very important. The SNP sweep in Scotland and the success of the Conservatives in capturing Liberal Democrat seats across southern England largely explain the election outcome, with the Lib-Dem collapse being crucial for the Conservative victory. Official election returns combined with census data and the results of Ashcroft polls’ indicate that leader images and economic evaluations had significant effects on constituency-level election outcomes.