Exploring Dynamics of Water, Energy, and Food Systems in Agricultural Landscapes Using Mental Modeling: A Case of Varamin Plain, Iran

This study applies the mental model and cognitive mapping method to involve stakeholders in delineating the mutual relations between sources of water, energy, and food (WEF) production in the Varamin Plain (VP). Through involving farmers and managerial experts, the approach facilitates the deployment of community communication patterns to recognize and comprehend problems and move from single-loop learning to double-loop learning. The dynamic model was driven from the final mental model of the participants to reflect changes in the systems over time. The system dynamic (SD) model incorporates three scenarios for enhancing irrigation efficiency, managing groundwater extraction, and satisfying environmental needs. The results uncovered that the surface and underground water resources of the VP will gradually decrease within the next two decades in the range of 158 and 2700 million cubic meters (MCM) per year. Also, the plain suffers from water insecurity and a 162 MCM shortage. Consequently, focusing on understanding the nexus and nexus governance can enhance resource management and achieve sustainable development goals. Essentially, promoting collaborative governance, such as creating cooperative organizations and implementing double-loop learning, and instituting a water market, regulatory governance, and monitoring laws can improve the state of Varamin Plain’s resources. These results carry important policy implications for using mental models to consider dynamics for discussions on participatory management of the WEF system nexus and environmental management.