1. First Lesson: Risk Understanding

This chapter provides a thorough examination of the concept of risk, beginning with its definition and the challenges associated with it. It explores the five critical questions that describe risk: what can go wrong, how likely it is to happen, what the consequences are, what the uncertainties are, and how strong the strength of knowledge is. The bow-tie model is introduced as a visual tool for understanding risk, illustrating the relationship between hazards, barriers, and consequences. The chapter also delves into the measurement of risk, focusing on personnel, environmental, and economic asset risks. It discusses various metrics such as Potential Loss of Life (PLL), Individual Risk (IR), the F-N curve, and the Frequency of Impairment (FI). The purpose of risk assessment is highlighted as a foundation for decision-making, and the chapter compares regulatory approaches in Norway and the UK. Additionally, it addresses the influence of human and organizational factors on risk, emphasizing the importance of integrating these factors into risk assessments. The chapter concludes with a discussion on uncertainty and sensitivity, and the concept of black swan risk, providing a comprehensive overview of risk assessment and management in the offshore petroleum sector.