Forecast Model of Comprehensive Transport Freight Index Considering Macro Economy in China

To better construct the coordinated development of the comprehensive transportation system, the prediction model of comprehensive freight index in China was studied. Basic indicators of production and supply, benefits and macroeconomic were selected. Cluster analysis was used to divide the indicators into 13 leading indicators and 13 synchronous indicators. Factor analysis was used to analyze the importance of each leading indicator. The characteristic quantities of freight index were determined and the Granger causality test was conducted between the four indexes and the five characteristic quantities respectively. The relationship model between each freight index and characteristic quantity was constructed, and the validity of the model was verified. Results show that the freight indexes are volatile. There is a stable relationship between characteristic quantity and freight index. The error of forecast and actual value of is within 10%, verifying the validity of the model. The results can provide theoretical support for forecasting the development trends of freight transport among various transport modes. The comprehensive transport will be improved to provide a decision-making basis for the national macro-department to make policies.