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Published in:
2013 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Forecast of Advanced Technology Adoption for Coal Fired Power Generation Towards the Year of 2050
Author : Keiji Makino
Published in: Cleaner Combustion and Sustainable World
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
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Abstract
Needs for electricity is growing rapidly in many countries and it is expected the increase of electricity by 2030 is almost double. Fossil fuels, renewables, nuclear energy will play leading parts in the future, but fossil power generation will continue to play a major role. Especially, coal will be used continuously due to its stable supply and lower price. However, global warming countermeasures should be considered for large amount of coal use. High efficient systems and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will be most applicable solution for the problems.
USC, IGCC and A-USC have higher efficiencies, but costs are normally higher. So it is very important to evaluate the future trend of the plants, that is the cost, performance and the share of each plant. It is also essential to evaluate high efficient plants which will be constructed mainly and which system investment should be paid to. But no less important is to evaluate each system from the neutral position. So Japan Coal Energy Center (JCOAL) constructed its own program to expect the future trend of each plant. JCOAL made a basic concept and the programming was done by SRI International of the United States.
The considered systems of coal fired power generation are Supercritical Unit, Ultra Supercritical Unit, Advanced- Supercritical Unit, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) and Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell (IGFC). In order to compare with the natural gas case, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) is included. Evaluation will be done for both without and with CCS cases. This program covers by the year of 2050.
The results are trends of following items: capital cost, operational and maintenance cost, levelized cost of electricity, etc. We can also expect the future share of high efficient coal fired systems by 2050. Here the share will be decided by the levelized cost of electricity. The plant that has the lowest cost will get more share under the scenario of this program.
This chapter summarizes the program and the results of the evaluation.