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2015 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

3. Forecast of China’s Economy for 2014–2015

Author : Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

Published in: China’s Macroeconomic Outlook

Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Abstract

In 2014, the decreasing trend of economy growth will continue. In the first half year of 2014, compared with the same period of the last year, the GDP grew 7.4 %, which was the lowest for the past 4 years.
In the past 3 years, the central government has been applying the micro-stimulus and targeted easing policies to relieve downward pressure of China’s economy, and to maintain growth above 7.5 %. The effects of micro-stimulus policies on economy growth are continuously diminishing:
Based on the features of the economy circle and the economy of “the new normal”, China should appropriately set a lower economic growth target, which will be conducive to appropriately reduce the government intervention of market, and help to greatly cut the cost of macroeconomic controls and operations. Thus, we need to investigate the effects of giving up micro-stimulus policies and reducing the economic growth target on other major macroeconomic indicators.

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previous chapter A Review of China’s Economy in the First Half of 2014
next chapter Policy Simulations
Footnotes
1
Severe weather in winter caused serious impacts on consumption, fixed investment and trade, and the significant decline in inventories in the first quarter of 2014 also brought a drag of 1.7 percentage points to GDP after the sharp rise in inventories in the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2013.
 
2
In the second half, the goals of monetary policy are expected be: maintaining economic growth stably and optimizing economic structure. First, the central bank is expected to intensify directional loose, to increase support to key areas and weak areas, such as small and micro businesses, agriculture, rural areas and farmers and the shantytown improvement project. Second, the central bank is expected to continue to release liquidity: to guide to credit and improve the central bank collateral management framework, to expand the channels of base money, to elongate delivery deadline, thereby reducing the social financing cost and stabilizing business expectations. In addition, a loosening credit policy is expected in the second half.
 
3
The prudent monetary policy should focus on reducing capital costs in the long run, and moderately lowering the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates. If economy is worsening in the third and fourth quarter of 2014, the monetary policy may enhance a loose policy, and interest rates ma y be cut by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter.
 
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Metadata
Title
Forecast of China’s Economy for 2014–2015
Author
Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
Copyright Year
2015
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Book
China’s Macroeconomic Outlook

Print ISBN: 978-3-662-45404-6

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-662-45405-3

Copyright Year: 2015

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-45405-3_3