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Published in:
2006 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Forecast performance in natural sciences
Published in: Prediction or Prophecy?
Publisher: DUV
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This chapter evaluates the predictive performance of thermodynamics in distinguishing between experimental and non-experimental contexts. Two historic case studies, namely on the latent heat of fusion and the ideal gas law, warrant the conclusion that experimental thermodynamics is characterized by predictive progress
in depth
as well as
in scope
. The non-experimental case is explored by examining attempts to predict the climate. Climatology’s predictive performance is found to be poor.