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02-05-2021

Forecasting of Wind Speed by Using Three Different Techniques of Prediction Models

Authors: Manoj Verma, Harish Kumar Ghritlahre

Published in: Annals of Data Science | Issue 3/2023

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Abstract

Wind energy plays a major role in meeting the world’s growing power demand, due to which wind speed forecasting is essential for power system management, energy trading and maintaining the balance between consumption and generation for a stable electricity market. In this article, three different types of predicting techniques have been implemented for estimating wind speed by means of different meteorological parameters. Group method of data handling (GMDH), multi linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models have been developed. For these models, data sets of 05 years (12 datasets from each year) were collected from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Five different types of input variables, which are ambient temperature (Ta), atmospheric pressure (Pr), wind direction (WD), relative humidity (RH) and precipitation (Pc) were selected as independent variables in all models. The collected wind speed (Wv) is selected as output or dependent variable. In this study, 48 sets of data were picked for training process and 12 datasets were selected for testing. The performances of models were examined using statistical parameters such as RMSE, MAPE and R². MLR, GMDH and ANN techniques accurately performed with values of correlation coefficient (R) being obtained as 0.90552, 0.95542 and 0.97617 respectively. Comparative study of all models reveals that out of these three techniques, ANN performs the best. In the ANN model, the values of RMSE, MAE and R² obtained were 0.17476, 0.12984 and 0.95210 respectively, which are optimal results when compared to those of other models. After ANN, GMDH performed better than MLR. Above analysis reveals that the wind speed was predicted with the highest accuracy by the neural technique.

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Title: Forecasting of Wind Speed by Using Three Different Techniques of Prediction Models
Authors: Manoj Verma
Harish Kumar Ghritlahre
Publication date: 02-05-2021
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in: Annals of Data Science / Issue 3/2023
Print ISSN: 2198-5804
Electronic ISSN: 2198-5812
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40745-021-00333-0

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Forecasting of Wind Speed by Using Three Different Techniques of Prediction Models

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