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Demography
Published in: Demography 6/2019

11-11-2019

Fragmentation or Diversification? Ethnoracial Change and the Social and Economic Heterogeneity of Places

Authors: Laura Tach, Barrett Lee, Michael Martin, Lauren Hannscott

Published in: Demography | Issue 6/2019

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Abstract

Our study investigates the diversification and fragmentation theses, fueled by claims that greater diversity is reshaping the social fabric of American life and that the United States is an increasingly fragmented nation. We take a multidimensional view of heterogeneity that considers whether growing ethnoracial diversity within U.S. communities (i.e., incorporated and unincorporated places) has resulted in the consolidation or differentiation of demographic, sociocultural, and economic distinctions between 1980 and 2010. As communities have become more ethnoracially diverse, they have become more heterogeneous in language and nativity—two characteristics tied closely to Latino and Asian population growth. However, ethnoracial diversity within communities is only weakly associated with household, age, educational, occupational, or income heterogeneity despite large racial/ethnic differences in these characteristics nationally. This trend does not apply to all forms of ethnoracial diversity equally: Hispanic and especially Asian population growth is more likely to generate community sociodemographic and economic heterogeneity than is black population growth. Consistent with the fragmentation hypothesis, we also find that broader geographic context matters, with more ethnoracially diverse metropolitan and micropolitan areas experiencing reduced social and economic heterogeneity inside their constituent places. We conclude by discussing the social implications of these patterns for intergroup relations, spatial exclusion, and ethnoracial inequality.
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Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
Nonwhite population growth does not always lead to greater ethnoracial diversity, particularly if a place is already majority nonwhite. However, about three-quarters of incorporated and unincorporated places were majority non-Hispanic white in 1980 (Hall et al. 2016), so white population loss and nonwhite population growth at the place level since 1980 have usually led to greater ethnoracial diversity.
 
2
The ACS estimates for some communities have large margins of error. Following Spielman et al. (2014), we computed coefficients of variation and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the inclusion of places with low-reliability estimates (coefficient of variation > 40). Our results are robust to excluding these places.
 
3
Places that were excluded in 1980 because they did not meet the population threshold were less racially diverse on average than our analytic sample. Newly created places (1990 or later) tended to be less ethnoracially diverse than existing places, but they also became more diverse over time. Sensitivity analyses show that the results are robust to these two sample restrictions.
 
4
We computed a ratio of the 2010 to 1980 area size of each place (in square miles) to determine which places had lost land, remained stable, or annexed land during the observation period. Mean 1980 and 2010 diversity levels were quite similar across the shrinking, stable, and expanding categories of places. In Table A2 of the online appendix, we also reran our main analysis on the sample of stable places and found results that are substantively and statistically similar to those using the full sample.
 
5
Supplemental analyses indicated that the associations between nonracial diversity and other forms of population heterogeneity were similar in magnitude for large principal cities and other types of places with smaller populations (results available in the online appendix, Table A3).
 
6
The results of this supplemental analysis indicate that changes in racial diversity and nonracial population heterogeneity are strongest in places that start with low levels of racial diversity in 1980 and are weaker in places with high levels of starting racial diversity.
 
7
Although theoretically distinct, the nominal and ordinal entropy scores are highly correlated for our ordinal measures. The results we present are robust to our use of either nominal or ordinal entropy scores to measure diversity for the ordered measures of diversity.
 
8
In supplemental analyses presented in Table A4 of the online appendix, we also examined a set of models that used lagged measures of ethnoracial diversity to predict subsequent changes in nonracial heterogeneity. These results were generally statistically significant although of somewhat smaller magnitude than the results presented here.
 
9
Changes in non-Hispanic white population shares are negatively correlated with changes in the shares of other racial/ethnic groups, but population changes among nonwhite racial/ethnic groups are very weakly correlated (r < .1).
 
10
Unfortunately, the Census Bureau did not publish detailed tabulations by race or ethnicity (STF2 and STF4) prior to 2000, which are needed to construct measures of within racial/ethnic group heterogeneity at the place level.
 
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Metadata
Title
Fragmentation or Diversification? Ethnoracial Change and the Social and Economic Heterogeneity of Places
Authors
Laura Tach
Barrett Lee
Michael Martin
Lauren Hannscott
Publication date
11-11-2019
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Demography / Issue 6/2019
Print ISSN: 0070-3370
Electronic ISSN: 1533-7790
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00835-w

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