4. From Ocean Currents to Power Struggles: Climate Change and Emerging Geopolitical Threats in the Arctic

This paper explores how climate change transforms the Arctic from a remote, ice-locked frontier into a critical arena where environmental fragility meets geopolitical volatility. As ocean currents shift and sea ice retreats, the Arctic emerges as both a bellwether of planetary change and a stage for intensifying strategic rivalries. The ocean and climate are deeply interconnected systems, and their evolving dynamics are reshaping global power relations—nowhere more visibly than in this rapidly warming region. New maritime routes and resource extraction opportunities are redrawing strategic maps, as Arctic states and global powers reposition themselves in response to shifting environmental and security landscapes. These changes, although cantered in the Arctic, reverberate through interconnected climate systems, impacting weather patterns and maritime security as far as the Euro-Mediterranean region. The paper analyses the complex interplay between ecological transformation and great power competition through an interdisciplinary lens that combines climate science, international relations, and security studies, this paper analyzes the complex interplay between ecological transformation and great power competition. In doing so, it calls for integrated, multilateral governance solutions capable of reconciling ecological protection with economic ambition and emerging security imperatives.