Fuel cells could play an important role in mobility and the heating market. But they don't, at least not in this country. A Fraunhofer project is now trying to collect and update all data and trends on the subject worldwide.
While hydrogen fuel cells are efficient, the infrastructure is in its infancy.
US Navy
The fuel cell has a hard time in Germany. Despite generous subsidy programs, just over 2,000 of these heat sources have been installed in German homes in recent years. Of the well-known German manufacturers, Viessmann is still in the running in a cooperation with Panasonic. The situation is no better when it comes to mobility. Around 100 filling stations are available for just 1,500 vehicles – a niche within a niche.
After all, the German way has long since ceased to be that of the technology leader. In other countries, fuel cells are treated less stepmotherly. And that is precisely what needs to be researched scientifically.
Comprehensive Roadmap for H2 Technologies
In the "H2GO" project, the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) conducted an innovation analysis on fuel cells. The analysis includes findings on technology development, market penetration, market emergence and production capacities. Together with studies on electrolysis, it forms a comprehensive roadmapping of hydrogen technologies.
The meta-analysis in the project shows a wide range of market expectations: Forecasts range from 10 to 41 % annual growth, with the majority of studies assuming medium growth between 15 and 30 %. By 2030, revenues are projected to range from just under $2 billion to $87 billion. This range is due to the uncertainty surrounding the emergence of new markets, further amplified by the dynamic nature of the energy transition, with various technological alternatives competing to replace fossil fuels.
In the early stages of innovation, government support is a key driver for the development of new technologies. In Germany, targeted support has led to the establishment of a comprehensive research network for fuel cells in which industry is heavily involved. Over 500 companies, including 270 SMEs, have participated in relevant funded projects to date. These projects are often closely linked with partners from science and industry.
Continuous Funding in Germany
Since 2017, there has been a steady increase in government funding from the federal government, particularly for PEM technology (130 million euros 2023). Investments in high-temperature fuel cells (14 million euros 2023) are also being consistently promoted. Since 2009, a significant increase in funding without specific allocation to a fuel cell technology can also be observed.
These are often market launch programs and incentives, such as projects in the transport sector with fuel cell vehicles or the development of a filling station infrastructure.
The German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (233 million euros in 2023), the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (64 million euros in 2023) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (27 million euros in 2023) are the main funding sources here.
Henning Döscher, who is coordinating the research work on "H2GO" at Fraunhofer ISI, points to the global build-up of production capacities: "Today’s data indicate that we will reach a global capacity of about 300 million PEM fuel cells produced per year in the current decade, which are likely to be used primarily for mobility solutions".
FC Production Sufficient for a Quarter of a Million Trucks
That would be enough to equip around 250,000 trucks a year with fuel cells. Investment commitments for production expansion this decade amount to at least $14.7 billion. However, the available data is still incomplete, with most announcements coming from Chinese companies.
But industrial investment is also on the horizon in France, Korea and Germany.
The Fraunhofer ISI researcher sees Germany as an important location for fuel cell technologies and recognizes great opportunities for the domestic industry – provided that there is wise and consistent investment both by industry for production scaling and by the government for research, development and the strategic development of the initial infrastructure. Otherwise, there is a risk of losing out internationally in the medium term.
19 Fraunhofer Institutes Involved
In the project "H2GO - National Fuel Cell Production Action Plan", 19 Fraunhofer institutes are working together to develop technical solutions for a rapid ramp-up of fuel cell production. The goals are sustainable drive options for significant CO2 reduction in German heavy-duty traffic.
Fraunhofer ISI monitored innovation data on fuel cell technologies, related to research networks, patents, market expectations and production build-up. Three technology areas were differentiated: Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) fuel cells, suitable for transportation and already used in rail vehicles and submarines, with potential for heavy-duty transportation; high-temperature fuel cells, more suitable for cogeneration; and alternative fuel cell types, which play a minor role.
Potential Barely Enough for the Heating Market
Despite the positively assessed potential, the participating institutes are not focusing their attention on mobility and, in part, industry for nothing. This is because the production volumes will cover precisely these sectors, even with investments in Germany. Hydrogen from electrolysis will remain rather expensive. On the Leipzig energy exchange EEX, it is currently traded in the Hydrix index (so-called green hydrogen) for about eight times the price of hydrogen from steam reforming.
Even with favorable scaling, it is not expected to drop to this level in the next ten years. The forecasts here still assume costs that are twice as high – an exclusion criterion for the heat market with its strong social component, in which there are also many significantly cheaper alternatives.
