5. Fundamentals of Technology Forecasting

This chapter delves into the essentials of technology forecasting, a discipline crucial for managers navigating uncertain technological landscapes. It begins by distinguishing technology forecasting from technology foresight, emphasizing the former's role in quantitative and qualitative predictions of specific technological developments. The text then explores the challenges and methods for forecasting revolutionary change, highlighting the Delphi method as a key tool for synthesizing expert opinions. Additionally, it introduces quantitative approaches for forecasting radical innovations based on historical patterns and statistical analysis. For evolutionary changes, the chapter discusses the use of logistic curves and other statistical models to predict future trends, emphasizing the importance of accurate parameter identification. The chapter concludes by offering practical advice on interpreting forecasts and making informed decisions in the face of uncertainty, making it an invaluable resource for professionals seeking to understand and apply technology forecasting techniques.