Future Changes in Extreme Rainfall Over the South Korea: Based on AR6 Climate Scenarios

In this study, future extreme rainfall characteristics (frequency, duration, and intensity) over South Korea were analyzed using the ensemble mean climate models (based on HadGEM3-RA, WRF, CCLM, GRIMs, and RegCM4) from the CIP (climate information portal, http://​www.​climate.​go.​kr/​). Four SSP–RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) were used to estimate the rainfall quantiles. The observed data were collected for 615 sites in South Korea from 1961 to 2020. Furthermore, the simulated data from the climate model were produced into the historical period (1979–2014, S0) and the future period (2015–2100) focused on the East Asia region, and the spatial resolution is 25 km. The inverse distance weighting (IDW) method was used for extracting the rainfall data of interesting sites (spatial disaggregation). And then, the regional quantile delta mapping (RQDM) method was applied for the bias correction, and the future periods were divided into 2021–2040 (S1), 2041–2060 (S2), 2061–2080 (S3), and 2081–2100 (S4). The extreme rainfall quantiles were estimated using the regional frequency analysis (based on GEV and L-moments). In addition, the rainfall quantiles were compared for each future period, and the prospects of climate change were assessed spatially for the results of AR6 scenarios in South Korea.