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2014 | Book

Introduction Read chapter Read first chapter

Global Energy Demand and 2-degree Target, Report 2014

Author: Valentin Crastan

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Part of: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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About this book

This report takes a neutral and independent point of view in attempting to show concrete ways to achieve the goal of reducing the CO2 emissions and limiting the global warming to the 2-degree target. It presents an overall picture spanning all key countries. In the report, the temporal evolution of the main parameters is given from 1970 to 2011 for all regions of the world and all G-20 countries, starting from the basic data, gross inland consumption. The parameters are then extrapolated to 2030, taking into account current trends, local factors and the requirements of the 2-degree climate target.

An important basis is the structure of the current energy consumption and energy flows of all regions of the world and all G-20 countries, which is analyzed in the appendix in detail and reproduced as clearly as possible. The reports from climate science make it clear that with a greater level of warming, adaptation is the more expensive option. Compliance with the 2-degree climate target is a challenge, but not impossible.

The book is intended not only for the scientific community but also for decision makers in government and industry.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Introduction
Abstract
The fifth IPCC report on climate change [1–3] essentially confirmed the statements of the fourth report of 2007. Warnings about man-made global warming are even stronger. More insistently than before, the need is emphasized to reduce CO2 emissions quickly, to prevent the mean temperature rise of the earth from exceeding 2 °C (the 2-degree target). Given are the annual CO2 emissions from 1970 and the cumulative emission profiles from 1870 and climate protection scenarios up to 2100. Definition of indicators and analyzed world regions and countries.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 2. Summarizing Preview
Abstract
Comparing, worldwide for 2011, the CO2 emissions caused by burning fossil fuels, in all regions of the world, in the G-20 countries as a whole and in some important members of the G-20 group, the results are shown in Fig. 2.1. In 2011, the G-20 countries were responsible for a total of 84 %, China and the OECD together for 67 %, China and the U.S. together for 44 % of global CO2 emissions. Meeting the 2-degree climate target is therefore realistic only if these countries and groups of countries participate actively and purposefully. Figures 2.2–2.6 show the past evolution of the indicators and the necessary one to fulfill the 2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 3. World
Abstract
The world is divided (according essentially to the IEA) into the following zones: OECD-34 (split into EU-15, USA, Japan and the other 17 OECD countries), Eurasia+ (with Non-OECD-Europe), Middle East, China, India, Rest of Asia/Oceania (excluding OECD members), Central + South America (without Chile) and Africa. The percentage shares of population are shown in Fig. 3.1. The GDP (PPP) of the world is $73,000 billion ($ of 2007), but there is a wide gap, with a factor of about 5.4 between the GDP per capita in OECD countries and the rest of the world (Fig. 3.2). China, with 19 % of the population, has a GDP (PPP) of $10,750 billion/a, or almost 15 % of the world GDP. India produces, with 18 % of the population, a GDP (PPP) of $4,080 billion/a, or about 6.8 % of world GDP. Figures 3.3–3.11 show the past worldwide evolution of indicators and emissions and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the 2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 4. OECD-34
Abstract
The 34 countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had in 2011 a population of 1,241 million (Fig. 4.1), which is about 18 % of the world population. They generate a GDP (PPP) of $39,700 billion ($ of 2007), representing 54 % of the world GDP, after correction for purchasing power. The main players are the EU-15, the USA and Japan, which together have 68 % of the population and generate 78 % of OECD GDP. Figures 4.3–4.12 show the past evolution of indicators and emissions of the OECD-34 and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the  2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 5. European Union EU-27
Abstract
The EU of 27 nations had, in 2011, over half a billion inhabitants (Fig. 5.1). Taking account of purchasing power parity (PPP), this generates a GDP of 14,500 billion (of year-2007 dollars), which is about 20 % of world GDP (PPP). The six countries with the greatest populations (Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and Poland), with around 70 % of the population of the EU, account for 73 % of the GDP. The 15 Western European countries (EU-15) that are members of the OECD, with 79 % of the population, account for around 88 % of the GDP of the EU-27 (Fig. 5.2). Figures 5.3–5.12 show the past evolution of indicators and emissions of the EU-27 and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the 2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 6. Middle East
Abstract
With a population of 209 million inhabitants, the Middle East generates a GDP (PPP) of around $2,720 billion ($ of 2007). About 50 % of this is produced by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States (from Oman to Kuwait), which together have 21 % of the Middle East’s population (Fig. 6.1). Iran, the state with the greatest population, generates a further 34 %. The remaining 16 % come from the other countries Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Jordan and Lebanon, with a population share of around 43 % (Fig. 6.2). Israel is analyzed in Chap. 4, as a member of the OECD. Figures 6.3–6.12 show the past evolution of indicators and emissions of the Middle East and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the 2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 7. Eurasia+
Abstract
The term Eurasia+ is used to indicate the 14 countries of the former Soviet Union (excluding Estonia, member of the OECD), and a further 12 European countries that are not members of the OECD, with a total population of 340 million (Fig. 7.1). GDP (PPP) per capita of the countries of Eurasia+ (Fig. 7.2). Figures 7.3–7.12 show the past evolution of indicators and emissions of Eurasia+ and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the 2-degree target. 
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 8. Rest of Asia/Oceania
Abstract
The rest of Asia/Oceania is understood as the continents of Asia and Oceania without China, India, Middle East, Eurasia (Asian part), Japan and all further member states of the OECD such as South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. The total population is 1,071 million (Fig. 8.1) and the GDP (PPP) $4,940 billion ($ of 2007) or about 6.8 % of world GDP. The six most populous countries are Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand. With 77 % of the population, they produce 60 % of the GDP (PPP) (Fig. 8.2). Figures 8.3–8.12 show the past evolution of indicators and emissions of the Rest of Asia/Oceania and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the 2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 9. Non-OECD America
Abstract
Non-OECD America (Central and South America, excluding Chile), with 460 million inhabitants, have 91 % of the population of the EU-27, but only 32 % of its GDP (PPP). Brazil is with 43 % of the population and 46 % of the GDP (PPP), the most significant on the continent (Fig. 9.1). The 5 most populous countries (Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Peru and Venezuela) account for 75 % of the population and produce 83 % of the GDP (PPP) (Fig. 9.2). Figures 9.3–9.12 show the past evolution of indicators and emissions of non-OECD America and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the 2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 10. Africa
Abstract
With a population of 1,045 million (Fig. 10.1) Africa has a GDP (PPP) of $ 2,900 billion ($ of 2007). The five countries with the largest GDP, namely South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Morocco, together have 35 % of the population and produce 60 % of the GDP (Fig. 10.2). Figures 10.3–10.12 show the past evolution of indicators and emissions of Africa and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the 2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 11. G-20
Abstract
The G-20 group includes the G-8 countries, emerging economies and the EU-27. In 2011 the group had a population of 4,527 million or 65 % of the world’s population (Fig. 11.1). The group generates a GDP (PPP) of around $61,000 billion ($ of 2007), representing 83 % of the world GDP. Among the emerging countries, China, India and Indonesia together have 63 % of the population but only 26 % of GDP (Fig. 11.2). Figures 11.3–11.12 show the past evolution of indicators and emissions of the G-20 group and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the 2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 12. G-20 Countries: Indicators, 2-degree Scenario
Abstract
To achieve the climate target it is appropriate to set the percentage reduction required by 2030 to a higher value, the higher is the indicator of 2011, basically like the green curve in Fig. 12.1a (variant a) or Fig. 12.1b (variant b). Fig. 12.1c shows the per capita CO2 emissions of the G-20 members. Figures 12.2–12.115 show the past evolution of indicators and emissions of all G-20 countries and the necessary one up to 2030 and 2050 to fulfill the 2-degree target.
Valentin Crastan
Chapter 13. Population, GDP, Energy and CO2 Emissions of World, OECD, Non-OECD, G-20
Abstract
Evolution of population, GDP, energy and CO2 emissions of World, OECD, Non-OECD, G-20 up to 2050.
Valentin Crastan
Backmatter
Metadata
Title
Global Energy Demand and 2-degree Target, Report 2014
Author
Valentin Crastan
Copyright Year
2014
Electronic ISBN
978-3-319-12310-3
Print ISBN
978-3-319-12309-7
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12310-3